Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability for "No" as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) maintains zero active Level 4 Travel Health Notices—the highest alert for destinations posing extreme health risks from widespread transmission of deadly pathogens like Ebola or polio amid conflict—unchanged through May 2026. This positioning stems from effective containment of ongoing threats: the clade IIb mpox outbreak, surpassing 100,000 global cases since 2022, stays below Level 4 thresholds due to vaccination campaigns and limited human-to-human spread; sporadic H5N1 avian influenza human infections lack sustained transmission; and recent measles surges or polio alerts (e.g., Level 2 advisories) fall short of Level 4 criteria. With seven months remaining, traders weigh low historical issuance rates against CDC weekly surveillance updates, seeing no epidemiological catalysts for escalation absent unforeseen outbreaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
$71,394 Vol.
$71,394 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$71,394 Vol.
$71,394 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability for "No" as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) maintains zero active Level 4 Travel Health Notices—the highest alert for destinations posing extreme health risks from widespread transmission of deadly pathogens like Ebola or polio amid conflict—unchanged through May 2026. This positioning stems from effective containment of ongoing threats: the clade IIb mpox outbreak, surpassing 100,000 global cases since 2022, stays below Level 4 thresholds due to vaccination campaigns and limited human-to-human spread; sporadic H5N1 avian influenza human infections lack sustained transmission; and recent measles surges or polio alerts (e.g., Level 2 advisories) fall short of Level 4 criteria. With seven months remaining, traders weigh low historical issuance rates against CDC weekly surveillance updates, seeing no epidemiological catalysts for escalation absent unforeseen outbreaks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$71,394End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability for "No" as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) maintains zero active Level 4 Travel Health Notices—the highest alert for destinations posing extreme health risks from widespread transmission of deadly pathogens like Ebola or polio amid conflict—unchanged through May 2026. This positioning stems from effective containment of ongoing threats: the clade IIb mpox outbreak, surpassing 100,000 global cases since 2022, stays below Level 4 thresholds due to vaccination campaigns and limited human-to-human spread; sporadic H5N1 avian influenza human infections lack sustained transmission; and recent measles surges or polio alerts (e.g., Level 2 advisories) fall short of Level 4 criteria. With seven months remaining, traders weigh low historical issuance rates against CDC weekly surveillance updates, seeing no epidemiological catalysts for escalation absent unforeseen outbreaks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$71,394End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability for "No" as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) maintains zero active Level 4 Travel Health Notices—the highest alert for destinations posing extreme health risks from widespread transmission of deadly pathogens like Ebola or polio amid conflict—unchanged through May 2026. This positioning stems from effective containment of ongoing threats: the clade IIb mpox outbreak, surpassing 100,000 global cases since 2022, stays below Level 4 thresholds due to vaccination campaigns and limited human-to-human spread; sporadic H5N1 avian influenza human infections lack sustained transmission; and recent measles surges or polio alerts (e.g., Level 2 advisories) fall short of Level 4 criteria. With seven months remaining, traders weigh low historical issuance rates against CDC weekly surveillance updates, seeing no epidemiological catalysts for escalation absent unforeseen outbreaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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