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icon for Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Politics·Colombia Election

Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?

icon for Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Politics·Colombia Election

Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?

Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 86%

1st Round Outright Winner 7.5%

Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 7%

Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia <1%

Polymarket

$11,604 Vol.

Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 86%

1st Round Outright Winner 7.5%

Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 7%

Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia <1%

Polymarket

$11,604 Vol.

Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro

$4,246 Vol.

86%

1st Round Outright Winner

$2,073 Vol.

7%

Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro

$2,488 Vol.

7%

Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia

$1,534 Vol.

<1%

Other

$1,263 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact leads recent polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote but falls short of the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright, positioning the contest as a race for second place between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia. Traders assign an 85 percent probability to Cepeda and de la Espriella advancing, consistent with surveys showing Cepeda at 35–44 percent and a narrow edge for de la Espriella over Valencia in the battle to face him in the June 21 runoff. Recent campaign developments, including de la Espriella’s security-focused messaging and Valencia’s consolidation within the Democratic Center, have reinforced this ordering while underscoring the impact of undecided voters and potential last-minute shifts among center-right supporters.

Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.

If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$11,604
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact leads recent polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote but falls short of the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright, positioning the contest as a race for second place between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia. Traders assign an 85 percent probability to Cepeda and de la Espriella advancing, consistent with surveys showing Cepeda at 35–44 percent and a narrow edge for de la Espriella over Valencia in the battle to face him in the June 21 runoff. Recent campaign developments, including de la Espriella’s security-focused messaging and Valencia’s consolidation within the Democratic Center, have reinforced this ordering while underscoring the impact of undecided voters and potential last-minute shifts among center-right supporters.

Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.

If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$11,604
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro" at 86%, followed by "1st Round Outright Winner" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" has generated $11.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" is "Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1st Round Outright Winner" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.