Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential contest features a fragmented three-way race among leftist Iván Cepeda, right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella, and center-right Paloma Valencia, none of whom polls project above 50 percent. This dynamic, combined with the March 8 legislative elections’ low turnout near 50 percent abstention, has anchored trader expectations around historical first-round benchmarks of 54.9 percent in 2022 and modeled participation of roughly 22–23 million out of 41.5 million eligible voters. Absent major campaign surges or scandals in the final weeks, the market assigns the 54–57 percent band the highest probability at 46.5 percent, with adjacent ranges capturing moderate uncertainty over whether polarization will boost mobilization or sustained apathy will cap it below 54 percent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated54-57% 51%
51-54% 18%
57-60% 18.0%
48-51% 15%
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
<48%
4%
48-51%
21%
51-54%
23%
54-57%
48%
57-60%
12%
60%+
22%
54-57% 51%
51-54% 18%
57-60% 18.0%
48-51% 15%
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
<48%
$436 Vol.
4%
48-51%
$428 Vol.
21%
51-54%
$420 Vol.
23%
54-57%
$441 Vol.
48%
57-60%
$420 Vol.
12%
60%+
$489 Vol.
22%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential contest features a fragmented three-way race among leftist Iván Cepeda, right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella, and center-right Paloma Valencia, none of whom polls project above 50 percent. This dynamic, combined with the March 8 legislative elections’ low turnout near 50 percent abstention, has anchored trader expectations around historical first-round benchmarks of 54.9 percent in 2022 and modeled participation of roughly 22–23 million out of 41.5 million eligible voters. Absent major campaign surges or scandals in the final weeks, the market assigns the 54–57 percent band the highest probability at 46.5 percent, with adjacent ranges capturing moderate uncertainty over whether polarization will boost mobilization or sustained apathy will cap it below 54 percent.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$2,634End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential contest features a fragmented three-way race among leftist Iván Cepeda, right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella, and center-right Paloma Valencia, none of whom polls project above 50 percent. This dynamic, combined with the March 8 legislative elections’ low turnout near 50 percent abstention, has anchored trader expectations around historical first-round benchmarks of 54.9 percent in 2022 and modeled participation of roughly 22–23 million out of 41.5 million eligible voters. Absent major campaign surges or scandals in the final weeks, the market assigns the 54–57 percent band the highest probability at 46.5 percent, with adjacent ranges capturing moderate uncertainty over whether polarization will boost mobilization or sustained apathy will cap it below 54 percent.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$2,634End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential contest features a fragmented three-way race among leftist Iván Cepeda, right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella, and center-right Paloma Valencia, none of whom polls project above 50 percent. This dynamic, combined with the March 8 legislative elections’ low turnout near 50 percent abstention, has anchored trader expectations around historical first-round benchmarks of 54.9 percent in 2022 and modeled participation of roughly 22–23 million out of 41.5 million eligible voters. Absent major campaign surges or scandals in the final weeks, the market assigns the 54–57 percent band the highest probability at 46.5 percent, with adjacent ranges capturing moderate uncertainty over whether polarization will boost mobilization or sustained apathy will cap it below 54 percent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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