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icon for Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?

icon for Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?

Cepeda Castro 10-15% 39%

Cepeda Castro 5-10% 35%

Cepeda Castro 15-20% 16.3%

de la Espriella Win 15%

Polymarket

$13,871 Vol.

Cepeda Castro 10-15% 39%

Cepeda Castro 5-10% 35%

Cepeda Castro 15-20% 16.3%

de la Espriella Win 15%

Polymarket

$13,871 Vol.

icon for Cepeda Castro 20%+

Cepeda Castro 20%+

$1,709 Vol.

4%

icon for Cepeda Castro 15-20%

Cepeda Castro 15-20%

$1,086 Vol.

10%

icon for Cepeda Castro 10-15%

Cepeda Castro 10-15%

$998 Vol.

39%

icon for Cepeda Castro 5-10%

Cepeda Castro 5-10%

$1,023 Vol.

35%

icon for Cepeda Castro 0-5%

Cepeda Castro 0-5%

$1,082 Vol.

11%

icon for de la Espriella Win

de la Espriella Win

$3,944 Vol.

15%

icon for Valencia Win

Valencia Win

$2,026 Vol.

<1%

icon for Other

Other

$2,003 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including AtlasIntel's May 8 survey showing Iván Cepeda Castro at 38%, Abelardo de la Espriella at 30%, and Paloma Valencia at 21%, underpin trader consensus favoring Cepeda's first-round victory by a 5-15% margin on May 31. This positioning reflects Cepeda's steady left-wing base amid President Petro's coalition momentum from March congressional wins, contrasted by the right's fragmented vote splitting between de la Espriella's populist surge and Valencia's center-right consolidation post-primaries. The tight race persists due to undecideds and potential right-wing mergers; a de la Espriella win at 14% odds highlights barriers like vote efficiency, while debates or endorsements could widen or narrow the gap ahead of any runoff.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$13,871
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polls, including AtlasIntel's May 8 survey showing Iván Cepeda Castro at 38%, Abelardo de la Espriella at 30%, and Paloma Valencia at 21%, underpin trader consensus favoring Cepeda's first-round victory by a 5-15% margin on May 31. This positioning reflects Cepeda's steady left-wing base amid President Petro's coalition momentum from March congressional wins, contrasted by the right's fragmented vote splitting between de la Espriella's populist surge and Valencia's center-right consolidation post-primaries. The tight race persists due to undecideds and potential right-wing mergers; a de la Espriella win at 14% odds highlights barriers like vote efficiency, while debates or endorsements could widen or narrow the gap ahead of any runoff.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$13,871
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cepeda Castro 10-15%" at 39%, followed by "Cepeda Castro 5-10%" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?" has generated $13.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?" is "Cepeda Castro 10-15%" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Cepeda Castro 5-10%" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.