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icon for Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Politics·Colombia Election

Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?

icon for Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Politics·Colombia Election

Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?

Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 79%

1st Round Outright Winner 11.1%

Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 10%

Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 79%

1st Round Outright Winner 11.1%

Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 10%

Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro

$3,517 Vol.

79%

1st Round Outright Winner

$1,811 Vol.

11%

Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro

$2,278 Vol.

10%

Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia

$1,304 Vol.

<1%

Other

$1,031 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls show leftist candidate Iván Cepeda leading with 35–44% but falling short of an outright first-round majority, while right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella holds a narrow edge over center-right senator Paloma Valencia in the contest for second place. This positioning has consolidated trader consensus around a Cepeda–de la Espriella runoff on June 21. De la Espriella’s surge in mid-May surveys, including AtlasIntel’s 29.4% reading, reflects his appeal among hardline conservative voters, though recent sexist remarks have drawn criticism that could narrow his advantage. Valencia benefits from institutional backing within the Centro Democrático but trails in turnout momentum. With the May 31 vote two weeks away and roughly 15% undecided voters remaining, any late consolidation among anti-Cepeda blocs could still shift the second-place outcome.

Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.

If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$9,942
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls show leftist candidate Iván Cepeda leading with 35–44% but falling short of an outright first-round majority, while right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella holds a narrow edge over center-right senator Paloma Valencia in the contest for second place. This positioning has consolidated trader consensus around a Cepeda–de la Espriella runoff on June 21. De la Espriella’s surge in mid-May surveys, including AtlasIntel’s 29.4% reading, reflects his appeal among hardline conservative voters, though recent sexist remarks have drawn criticism that could narrow his advantage. Valencia benefits from institutional backing within the Centro Democrático but trails in turnout momentum. With the May 31 vote two weeks away and roughly 15% undecided voters remaining, any late consolidation among anti-Cepeda blocs could still shift the second-place outcome.

Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.

If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$9,942
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”. If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro" at 79%, followed by "1st Round Outright Winner" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" is "Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1st Round Outright Winner" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.