Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week has positioned the 200-219 tweet range as the clear market frontrunner at 42.6% implied probability, driven by his pattern of frequent replies to Tesla FSD updates, Starship test commentary, and cultural debates. Traders have noted his consistent engagement with community posts on vehicle safety data, launch vehicle redesigns, and policy critiques, which historically push weekly counts into the low 200s during active product cycles. The adjacent 180-199 and 220-239 brackets trail at 28.5% and 20.5%, reflecting uncertainty around whether the final day will add enough replies to push totals higher. With the week ending May 19 and no major platform outages reported, market consensus centers on sustained but not record-breaking activity tied to ongoing Tesla and SpaceX news flow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated200-219 46.7%
180-199 23.9%
220-239 23.1%
240-259 3.5%
$9,868,333 Vol.
$9,868,333 Vol.
May 19, 2026
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
24%
200-219
47%
220-239
23%
240-259
4%
260-279
1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 46.7%
180-199 23.9%
220-239 23.1%
240-259 3.5%
$9,868,333 Vol.
$9,868,333 Vol.
May 19, 2026
140-159
$720,063 Vol.
<1%
160-179
$517,537 Vol.
1%
180-199
$400,683 Vol.
24%
200-219
$380,463 Vol.
47%
220-239
$422,127 Vol.
23%
240-259
$327,586 Vol.
4%
260-279
$307,757 Vol.
1%
280-299
$282,576 Vol.
<1%
300-319
$331,440 Vol.
<1%
320-339
$406,255 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$431,349 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$416,804 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$400,329 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$551,305 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$157,847 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$82,158 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$67,054 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$29,200 Vol.
<1%
500+
$241,779 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week has positioned the 200-219 tweet range as the clear market frontrunner at 42.6% implied probability, driven by his pattern of frequent replies to Tesla FSD updates, Starship test commentary, and cultural debates. Traders have noted his consistent engagement with community posts on vehicle safety data, launch vehicle redesigns, and policy critiques, which historically push weekly counts into the low 200s during active product cycles. The adjacent 180-199 and 220-239 brackets trail at 28.5% and 20.5%, reflecting uncertainty around whether the final day will add enough replies to push totals higher. With the week ending May 19 and no major platform outages reported, market consensus centers on sustained but not record-breaking activity tied to ongoing Tesla and SpaceX news flow.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ET
Volume
$9,868,333End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week has positioned the 200-219 tweet range as the clear market frontrunner at 42.6% implied probability, driven by his pattern of frequent replies to Tesla FSD updates, Starship test commentary, and cultural debates. Traders have noted his consistent engagement with community posts on vehicle safety data, launch vehicle redesigns, and policy critiques, which historically push weekly counts into the low 200s during active product cycles. The adjacent 180-199 and 220-239 brackets trail at 28.5% and 20.5%, reflecting uncertainty around whether the final day will add enough replies to push totals higher. With the week ending May 19 and no major platform outages reported, market consensus centers on sustained but not record-breaking activity tied to ongoing Tesla and SpaceX news flow.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$9,868,333End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week has positioned the 200-219 tweet range as the clear market frontrunner at 42.6% implied probability, driven by his pattern of frequent replies to Tesla FSD updates, Starship test commentary, and cultural debates. Traders have noted his consistent engagement with community posts on vehicle safety data, launch vehicle redesigns, and policy critiques, which historically push weekly counts into the low 200s during active product cycles. The adjacent 180-199 and 220-239 brackets trail at 28.5% and 20.5%, reflecting uncertainty around whether the final day will add enough replies to push totals higher. With the week ending May 19 and no major platform outages reported, market consensus centers on sustained but not record-breaking activity tied to ongoing Tesla and SpaceX news flow.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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