Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have driven a sharp shift in trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, with CME FedWatch pricing now implying roughly even odds of a 25-basis-point increase by December. Persistent price pressures, resilient consumer spending, and elevated geopolitical risks have tempered earlier expectations for further easing, leaving the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent after the April FOMC meeting. Market-implied probabilities reflect growing uncertainty around the inflation trajectory and labor-market resilience, with the next policy decision and upcoming CPI and PCE releases likely to influence positioning ahead of potential June deliberations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$148,654 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
16%
October Meeting
28%
$148,654 Vol.
June Meeting
$14,700 Vol.
1%
July Meeting
$1,008 Vol.
6%
September Meeting
$161 Vol.
16%
October Meeting
$1,477 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have driven a sharp shift in trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, with CME FedWatch pricing now implying roughly even odds of a 25-basis-point increase by December. Persistent price pressures, resilient consumer spending, and elevated geopolitical risks have tempered earlier expectations for further easing, leaving the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent after the April FOMC meeting. Market-implied probabilities reflect growing uncertainty around the inflation trajectory and labor-market resilience, with the next policy decision and upcoming CPI and PCE releases likely to influence positioning ahead of potential June deliberations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$148,654End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have driven a sharp shift in trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, with CME FedWatch pricing now implying roughly even odds of a 25-basis-point increase by December. Persistent price pressures, resilient consumer spending, and elevated geopolitical risks have tempered earlier expectations for further easing, leaving the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent after the April FOMC meeting. Market-implied probabilities reflect growing uncertainty around the inflation trajectory and labor-market resilience, with the next policy decision and upcoming CPI and PCE releases likely to influence positioning ahead of potential June deliberations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$148,654End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have driven a sharp shift in trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, with CME FedWatch pricing now implying roughly even odds of a 25-basis-point increase by December. Persistent price pressures, resilient consumer spending, and elevated geopolitical risks have tempered earlier expectations for further easing, leaving the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent after the April FOMC meeting. Market-implied probabilities reflect growing uncertainty around the inflation trajectory and labor-market resilience, with the next policy decision and upcoming CPI and PCE releases likely to influence positioning ahead of potential June deliberations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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