Hotter-than-expected inflation data over the past week has emerged as the dominant driver shifting trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with CME FedWatch Tool-implied probabilities now placing roughly even odds on a December 2026 increase and around 60% for January 2027. The federal funds rate remains anchored in the 3.50%-3.75% target range following the April 29 FOMC decision, where policymakers held steady amid resilient consumer spending, elevated energy prices, and geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants have rapidly repriced from near-zero odds of any 2026 hike just one month ago to current levels exceeding 45%, reflecting concerns that persistent price pressures could outweigh labor-market softening. The next key catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will navigate these revised expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$148,654 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
16%
October Meeting
28%
$148,654 Vol.
June Meeting
$14,700 Vol.
1%
July Meeting
$1,008 Vol.
6%
September Meeting
$161 Vol.
16%
October Meeting
$1,477 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hotter-than-expected inflation data over the past week has emerged as the dominant driver shifting trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with CME FedWatch Tool-implied probabilities now placing roughly even odds on a December 2026 increase and around 60% for January 2027. The federal funds rate remains anchored in the 3.50%-3.75% target range following the April 29 FOMC decision, where policymakers held steady amid resilient consumer spending, elevated energy prices, and geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants have rapidly repriced from near-zero odds of any 2026 hike just one month ago to current levels exceeding 45%, reflecting concerns that persistent price pressures could outweigh labor-market softening. The next key catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will navigate these revised expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$148,654End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hotter-than-expected inflation data over the past week has emerged as the dominant driver shifting trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with CME FedWatch Tool-implied probabilities now placing roughly even odds on a December 2026 increase and around 60% for January 2027. The federal funds rate remains anchored in the 3.50%-3.75% target range following the April 29 FOMC decision, where policymakers held steady amid resilient consumer spending, elevated energy prices, and geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants have rapidly repriced from near-zero odds of any 2026 hike just one month ago to current levels exceeding 45%, reflecting concerns that persistent price pressures could outweigh labor-market softening. The next key catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will navigate these revised expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$148,654End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hotter-than-expected inflation data over the past week has emerged as the dominant driver shifting trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with CME FedWatch Tool-implied probabilities now placing roughly even odds on a December 2026 increase and around 60% for January 2027. The federal funds rate remains anchored in the 3.50%-3.75% target range following the April 29 FOMC decision, where policymakers held steady amid resilient consumer spending, elevated energy prices, and geopolitical uncertainties. Market participants have rapidly repriced from near-zero odds of any 2026 hike just one month ago to current levels exceeding 45%, reflecting concerns that persistent price pressures could outweigh labor-market softening. The next key catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will navigate these revised expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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