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Politics·Florida

FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Florida

FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner

LaShonda "L.J." Holloway 78%

Michael Kirwan 22%

Brit Robinson 1.6%

Polymarket
NEW

LaShonda "L.J." Holloway 78%

Michael Kirwan 22%

Brit Robinson 1.6%

Polymarket
NEW

LaShonda "L.J." Holloway

$5,390 Vol.

78%

Michael Kirwan

$1,838 Vol.

22%

Brit Robinson

$592 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.LaShonda "L.J." Holloway leads the FL-04 Democratic primary market at 77.5% due to her status as the party's repeat nominee in 2022 and 2024, combined with a July Tyson Group poll showing her at 41% among likely voters against Michael Kirwan at 11% and Brit Robinson at 4%. Her prior runs provide strong name recognition across the Jacksonville-area district. Kirwan sits at 21.5% on the strength of substantial Q2 fundraising exceeding $700,000 and labor endorsements, though his polling trails. Robinson remains at 1.4% as a self-described Democratic Socialist with limited voter support. The August 18 primary date leaves little time for major shifts, with traders weighting Holloway's established profile and poll advantage over challengers' resources.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,820
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.LaShonda "L.J." Holloway leads the FL-04 Democratic primary market at 77.5% due to her status as the party's repeat nominee in 2022 and 2024, combined with a July Tyson Group poll showing her at 41% among likely voters against Michael Kirwan at 11% and Brit Robinson at 4%. Her prior runs provide strong name recognition across the Jacksonville-area district. Kirwan sits at 21.5% on the strength of substantial Q2 fundraising exceeding $700,000 and labor endorsements, though his polling trails. Robinson remains at 1.4% as a self-described Democratic Socialist with limited voter support. The August 18 primary date leaves little time for major shifts, with traders weighting Holloway's established profile and poll advantage over challengers' resources.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,820
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "LaShonda "L.J." Holloway" at 78%, followed by "Michael Kirwan" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is "LaShonda "L.J." Holloway" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael Kirwan" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.