The closely contested Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July features Restore Britain candidate Marlon West, whose selection in late June highlights grooming gangs and child exploitation concerns as a potential voter draw. This new party, formed after Rupert Lowe's split from Reform UK, risks dividing the right-wing vote in a supplementary voting system where first-preference thresholds matter. Recent local results show Reform UK performing strongly in some areas while Restore Britain polled weakly elsewhere, creating trader uncertainty over whether West can clear 10 percent amid Labour's frontrunner Bev Craig, rising Green support, and multiple other candidates. Short campaign timelines, voter turnout patterns, and any late shifts in right-wing consolidation could tip first-preference shares either direction before polls close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Jul 30, 2026
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Jul 30, 2026
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).The closely contested Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July features Restore Britain candidate Marlon West, whose selection in late June highlights grooming gangs and child exploitation concerns as a potential voter draw. This new party, formed after Rupert Lowe's split from Reform UK, risks dividing the right-wing vote in a supplementary voting system where first-preference thresholds matter. Recent local results show Reform UK performing strongly in some areas while Restore Britain polled weakly elsewhere, creating trader uncertainty over whether West can clear 10 percent amid Labour's frontrunner Bev Craig, rising Green support, and multiple other candidates. Short campaign timelines, voter turnout patterns, and any late shifts in right-wing consolidation could tip first-preference shares either direction before polls close.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 8:16 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 8:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).The closely contested Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July features Restore Britain candidate Marlon West, whose selection in late June highlights grooming gangs and child exploitation concerns as a potential voter draw. This new party, formed after Rupert Lowe's split from Reform UK, risks dividing the right-wing vote in a supplementary voting system where first-preference thresholds matter. Recent local results show Reform UK performing strongly in some areas while Restore Britain polled weakly elsewhere, creating trader uncertainty over whether West can clear 10 percent amid Labour's frontrunner Bev Craig, rising Green support, and multiple other candidates. Short campaign timelines, voter turnout patterns, and any late shifts in right-wing consolidation could tip first-preference shares either direction before polls close.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The percentage of valid first preference votes will be calculated as number of valid first preference votes received by Marlon West divided by the number of total valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Volume
$0End Date
Jul 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 8:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July features Restore Britain candidate Marlon West, whose selection in late June highlights grooming gangs and child exploitation concerns as a potential voter draw. This new party, formed after Rupert Lowe's split from Reform UK, risks dividing the right-wing vote in a supplementary voting system where first-preference thresholds matter. Recent local results show Reform UK performing strongly in some areas while Restore Britain polled weakly elsewhere, creating trader uncertainty over whether West can clear 10 percent amid Labour's frontrunner Bev Craig, rising Green support, and multiple other candidates. Short campaign timelines, voter turnout patterns, and any late shifts in right-wing consolidation could tip first-preference shares either direction before polls close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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