xAI released Grok 4.6 on August 12, 2026, shortly after Grok 4.5 in mid-July, continuing its rapid iteration cadence on the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation. The update emphasizes improvements in long-running agents, multi-step reasoning, interactive workflows, and visual tasks through enhanced supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, while maintaining the prior model's speed and efficiency. It targets competitive positioning against models like Claude Opus 4.8 and Moonshot's Kimi K3, with immediate availability via the xAI API, Cursor, and Grok Build at $2/$6 per million input/output tokens. A larger 2.1T Grok 4.7 is expected weeks later, reflecting xAI's focus on agentic capabilities amid the broader frontier AI race. Traders should watch for any last-minute rollout adjustments or benchmark updates that could influence resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$263,091 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
August 7
No
August 11
No
August 12
Yes
August 13
Yes
August 14
Yes
August 21
Yes
$263,091 Vol.
August 7
$33,218 Vol.
No
August 11
$17,875 Vol.
No
August 12
$52,641 Vol.
Yes
August 13
$36,445 Vol.
Yes
August 14
$68,270 Vol.
Yes
August 21
$54,643 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI released Grok 4.6 on August 12, 2026, shortly after Grok 4.5 in mid-July, continuing its rapid iteration cadence on the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation. The update emphasizes improvements in long-running agents, multi-step reasoning, interactive workflows, and visual tasks through enhanced supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, while maintaining the prior model's speed and efficiency. It targets competitive positioning against models like Claude Opus 4.8 and Moonshot's Kimi K3, with immediate availability via the xAI API, Cursor, and Grok Build at $2/$6 per million input/output tokens. A larger 2.1T Grok 4.7 is expected weeks later, reflecting xAI's focus on agentic capabilities amid the broader frontier AI race. Traders should watch for any last-minute rollout adjustments or benchmark updates that could influence resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 10:21 AM ET
Volume
$263,091End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 10:21 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI released Grok 4.6 on August 12, 2026, shortly after Grok 4.5 in mid-July, continuing its rapid iteration cadence on the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation. The update emphasizes improvements in long-running agents, multi-step reasoning, interactive workflows, and visual tasks through enhanced supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, while maintaining the prior model's speed and efficiency. It targets competitive positioning against models like Claude Opus 4.8 and Moonshot's Kimi K3, with immediate availability via the xAI API, Cursor, and Grok Build at $2/$6 per million input/output tokens. A larger 2.1T Grok 4.7 is expected weeks later, reflecting xAI's focus on agentic capabilities amid the broader frontier AI race. Traders should watch for any last-minute rollout adjustments or benchmark updates that could influence resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$263,091End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 10:21 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
xAI released Grok 4.6 on August 12, 2026, shortly after Grok 4.5 in mid-July, continuing its rapid iteration cadence on the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation. The update emphasizes improvements in long-running agents, multi-step reasoning, interactive workflows, and visual tasks through enhanced supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, while maintaining the prior model's speed and efficiency. It targets competitive positioning against models like Claude Opus 4.8 and Moonshot's Kimi K3, with immediate availability via the xAI API, Cursor, and Grok Build at $2/$6 per million input/output tokens. A larger 2.1T Grok 4.7 is expected weeks later, reflecting xAI's focus on agentic capabilities amid the broader frontier AI race. Traders should watch for any last-minute rollout adjustments or benchmark updates that could influence resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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