**Forecast models and official guidance from sources like the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Yr.no, and ensembles such as GFS/ECMWF point to a highest temperature near 15–16°C on September 13, 2026, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities for 16°C (48.5%) and nearby outcomes.** Seasonal norms place the average daily high at approximately 15.9°C, and current setups feature southwesterly or westerly flow over the Baltic region that moderates extremes through maritime air masses. Multiple 10-day outlooks show daytime maxima clustered around 15–16°C (roughly 59–61°F) under mostly cloudy skies with a 30–40% chance of light rain, which limits solar heating and keeps the diurnal range modest. Slight model spread exists—some runs edge toward 17–18°C under clearer breaks, while others hold near 15°C amid steadier cloud cover—explaining the secondary weight on 15°C and 17°C. No significant warm or cold advection signals appear in the short term, so probabilities remain anchored to these values pending the next model cycles and FMI updates closer to the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Helsinki on September 13?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on September 13?
16°C 50%
15°C 22%
17°C 22%
14°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
11°C or below
2%
12°C
3%
13°C
5%
14°C
9%
15°C
22%
16°C
50%
17°C
22%
18°C
7%
19°C
5%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
2%
16°C 50%
15°C 22%
17°C 22%
14°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
12°C
$0 Vol.
3%
13°C
$0 Vol.
5%
14°C
$5 Vol.
9%
15°C
$356 Vol.
22%
16°C
$47 Vol.
50%
17°C
$78 Vol.
22%
18°C
$15 Vol.
7%
19°C
$0 Vol.
5%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from sources like the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Yr.no, and ensembles such as GFS/ECMWF point to a highest temperature near 15–16°C on September 13, 2026, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities for 16°C (48.5%) and nearby outcomes.**
Seasonal norms place the average daily high at approximately 15.9°C, and current setups feature southwesterly or westerly flow over the Baltic region that moderates extremes through maritime air masses. Multiple 10-day outlooks show daytime maxima clustered around 15–16°C (roughly 59–61°F) under mostly cloudy skies with a 30–40% chance of light rain, which limits solar heating and keeps the diurnal range modest.
Slight model spread exists—some runs edge toward 17–18°C under clearer breaks, while others hold near 15°C amid steadier cloud cover—explaining the secondary weight on 15°C and 17°C. No significant warm or cold advection signals appear in the short term, so probabilities remain anchored to these values pending the next model cycles and FMI updates closer to the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$495End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from sources like the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Yr.no, and ensembles such as GFS/ECMWF point to a highest temperature near 15–16°C on September 13, 2026, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities for 16°C (48.5%) and nearby outcomes.**
Seasonal norms place the average daily high at approximately 15.9°C, and current setups feature southwesterly or westerly flow over the Baltic region that moderates extremes through maritime air masses. Multiple 10-day outlooks show daytime maxima clustered around 15–16°C (roughly 59–61°F) under mostly cloudy skies with a 30–40% chance of light rain, which limits solar heating and keeps the diurnal range modest.
Slight model spread exists—some runs edge toward 17–18°C under clearer breaks, while others hold near 15°C amid steadier cloud cover—explaining the secondary weight on 15°C and 17°C. No significant warm or cold advection signals appear in the short term, so probabilities remain anchored to these values pending the next model cycles and FMI updates closer to the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$495End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance from sources like the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Yr.no, and ensembles such as GFS/ECMWF point to a highest temperature near 15–16°C on September 13, 2026, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities for 16°C (48.5%) and nearby outcomes.** Seasonal norms place the average daily high at approximately 15.9°C, and current setups feature southwesterly or westerly flow over the Baltic region that moderates extremes through maritime air masses. Multiple 10-day outlooks show daytime maxima clustered around 15–16°C (roughly 59–61°F) under mostly cloudy skies with a 30–40% chance of light rain, which limits solar heating and keeps the diurnal range modest. Slight model spread exists—some runs edge toward 17–18°C under clearer breaks, while others hold near 15°C amid steadier cloud cover—explaining the secondary weight on 15°C and 17°C. No significant warm or cold advection signals appear in the short term, so probabilities remain anchored to these values pending the next model cycles and FMI updates closer to the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions