**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory place the October 4 high in the 27–31°C range amid a northeast monsoon surge and lingering high-altitude instability.** This setup favors scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially later in the day, while brief daytime sunshine could allow peaks near 30–31°C. Current observations show surface temperatures in the upper 20s°C with moderate humidity (65–90%) and easterly winds shifting northerly overnight, limiting extreme heating. Model consensus points to light-to-moderate rain totals that may cap afternoon maxima, yet any extended clear spells could push readings to 31°C or briefly higher. Traders assign nearly equal weight to 30°C and 31°C because small differences in cloud timing and wind shifts create genuine uncertainty within the narrow observed range; updated local observations and the final official daily maximum will resolve the market.