Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate mostly sunny to clear conditions over Istanbul on September 21, with light northeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting efficient daytime heating. This setup aligns with late-September climatology for the region, where highs typically reach the mid-20s Celsius under stable high pressure. Official guidance from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models consistently projects a daily maximum near 25–26°C, positioning 25°C as the market favorite. Recent observations show temperatures running close to or slightly above seasonal normals without significant anomalies, and the absence of incoming fronts or increased moisture keeps downside risks to lower readings limited while capping upside potential short of 27°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight consensus around these values against minor model variability in exact peak timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 21?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 21?
25°C 63%
24°C 28%
26°C 8%
23°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
28%
25°C
63%
26°C
8%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
2%
25°C 63%
24°C 28%
26°C 8%
23°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
20°C or below
$111 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$40 Vol.
2%
22°C
$44 Vol.
2%
23°C
$314 Vol.
3%
24°C
$582 Vol.
28%
25°C
$426 Vol.
63%
26°C
$216 Vol.
8%
27°C
$152 Vol.
2%
28°C
$44 Vol.
2%
29°C
$0 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate mostly sunny to clear conditions over Istanbul on September 21, with light northeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting efficient daytime heating. This setup aligns with late-September climatology for the region, where highs typically reach the mid-20s Celsius under stable high pressure. Official guidance from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models consistently projects a daily maximum near 25–26°C, positioning 25°C as the market favorite. Recent observations show temperatures running close to or slightly above seasonal normals without significant anomalies, and the absence of incoming fronts or increased moisture keeps downside risks to lower readings limited while capping upside potential short of 27°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight consensus around these values against minor model variability in exact peak timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,929End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate mostly sunny to clear conditions over Istanbul on September 21, with light northeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting efficient daytime heating. This setup aligns with late-September climatology for the region, where highs typically reach the mid-20s Celsius under stable high pressure. Official guidance from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models consistently projects a daily maximum near 25–26°C, positioning 25°C as the market favorite. Recent observations show temperatures running close to or slightly above seasonal normals without significant anomalies, and the absence of incoming fronts or increased moisture keeps downside risks to lower readings limited while capping upside potential short of 27°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight consensus around these values against minor model variability in exact peak timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,929End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate mostly sunny to clear conditions over Istanbul on September 21, with light northeasterly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting efficient daytime heating. This setup aligns with late-September climatology for the region, where highs typically reach the mid-20s Celsius under stable high pressure. Official guidance from sources such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models consistently projects a daily maximum near 25–26°C, positioning 25°C as the market favorite. Recent observations show temperatures running close to or slightly above seasonal normals without significant anomalies, and the absence of incoming fronts or increased moisture keeps downside risks to lower readings limited while capping upside potential short of 27°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight consensus around these values against minor model variability in exact peak timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions