The market's overwhelming 100% implied probability on a 19°C high for São Paulo on September 8 stems from official post-event observations confirming that exact maximum temperature at primary monitoring stations. Brazilian meteorological data, consistent with typical early-spring conditions under stable high-pressure influence, aligned with the recorded peak after daytime heating without significant cloud cover or frontal activity. This outcome matches historical September baselines around 18–22°C while ruling out outliers from transient weather systems. Minor uncertainty could arise only from rare revisions in station data or alternative measurement protocols, though such adjustments remain improbable given multiple verification sources.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 8?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 8?
19°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$23,577 Vol.
$23,577 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$23,577 Vol.
$23,577 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
15°C or below
$1,491 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,573 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,278 Vol.
No
18°C
$4,262 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,635 Vol.
Yes
20°C
$3,473 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,288 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,683 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,052 Vol.
No
24°C
$412 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$1,430 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming 100% implied probability on a 19°C high for São Paulo on September 8 stems from official post-event observations confirming that exact maximum temperature at primary monitoring stations. Brazilian meteorological data, consistent with typical early-spring conditions under stable high-pressure influence, aligned with the recorded peak after daytime heating without significant cloud cover or frontal activity. This outcome matches historical September baselines around 18–22°C while ruling out outliers from transient weather systems. Minor uncertainty could arise only from rare revisions in station data or alternative measurement protocols, though such adjustments remain improbable given multiple verification sources.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$23,577End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming 100% implied probability on a 19°C high for São Paulo on September 8 stems from official post-event observations confirming that exact maximum temperature at primary monitoring stations. Brazilian meteorological data, consistent with typical early-spring conditions under stable high-pressure influence, aligned with the recorded peak after daytime heating without significant cloud cover or frontal activity. This outcome matches historical September baselines around 18–22°C while ruling out outliers from transient weather systems. Minor uncertainty could arise only from rare revisions in station data or alternative measurement protocols, though such adjustments remain improbable given multiple verification sources.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,577End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market's overwhelming 100% implied probability on a 19°C high for São Paulo on September 8 stems from official post-event observations confirming that exact maximum temperature at primary monitoring stations. Brazilian meteorological data, consistent with typical early-spring conditions under stable high-pressure influence, aligned with the recorded peak after daytime heating without significant cloud cover or frontal activity. This outcome matches historical September baselines around 18–22°C while ruling out outliers from transient weather systems. Minor uncertainty could arise only from rare revisions in station data or alternative measurement protocols, though such adjustments remain improbable given multiple verification sources.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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