Recent forecast model consensus points to a cooler westerly flow arriving over central Poland on October 9, moderating daytime highs after warmer conditions earlier in the week. Official guidance from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and local runs shows maximum temperatures most likely between 14–17°C amid increasing cloud cover, light showers, and brisk winds near 15–25 km/h that limit afternoon warming. This spread explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 15–18°C, as small shifts in frontal timing or cloud breaks could push the peak a degree or two either way. Historical October averages for Warsaw near 15°C provide additional context for the current trader positioning ahead of final model updates.