Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and follow-on technical talks, have produced commitments on stockpile downblending and IAEA inspections but no agreement to permanently end uranium enrichment. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment under the NPT while offering only time-limited suspensions or limits, contrasting with U.S. calls for multi-year moratoriums. Recent disputes over inspection timing and access, reported in late June, underscore verification gaps following prior strikes on facilities. These positions, combined with historical patterns of incremental rather than total concessions, underpin the 88.5% trader-implied probability against a full public agreement by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated11% chance
$1,631,859 Vol.
$1,631,859 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
11% chance
$1,631,859 Vol.
$1,631,859 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and follow-on technical talks, have produced commitments on stockpile downblending and IAEA inspections but no agreement to permanently end uranium enrichment. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment under the NPT while offering only time-limited suspensions or limits, contrasting with U.S. calls for multi-year moratoriums. Recent disputes over inspection timing and access, reported in late June, underscore verification gaps following prior strikes on facilities. These positions, combined with historical patterns of incremental rather than total concessions, underpin the 88.5% trader-implied probability against a full public agreement by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,631,859End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and follow-on technical talks, have produced commitments on stockpile downblending and IAEA inspections but no agreement to permanently end uranium enrichment. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment under the NPT while offering only time-limited suspensions or limits, contrasting with U.S. calls for multi-year moratoriums. Recent disputes over inspection timing and access, reported in late June, underscore verification gaps following prior strikes on facilities. These positions, combined with historical patterns of incremental rather than total concessions, underpin the 88.5% trader-implied probability against a full public agreement by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,632,084End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and follow-on technical talks, have produced commitments on stockpile downblending and IAEA inspections but no agreement to permanently end uranium enrichment. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment under the NPT while offering only time-limited suspensions or limits, contrasting with U.S. calls for multi-year moratoriums. Recent disputes over inspection timing and access, reported in late June, underscore verification gaps following prior strikes on facilities. These positions, combined with historical patterns of incremental rather than total concessions, underpin the 88.5% trader-implied probability against a full public agreement by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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