The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, followed by the Assembly of Experts' selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, has shifted authority toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and younger military figures. Mojtaba's prolonged absence from public view and key negotiations has fueled questions about effective control and institutional stability, while President Masoud Pezeshkian and other officials remain in place. Recent May 2026 statements from Iranian officials demanding security guarantees before resuming talks, alongside economic pressures and internal coordination efforts, highlight ongoing risks of further disruption or consolidation. Traders assess these developments against historical patterns of clerical succession and the impact of external military actions on regime continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$13,712,443 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
May 31
7%
June 30
13%
December 31
34%
$13,712,443 Vol.
May 31
$2,017,106 Vol.
7%
June 30
$1,100,044 Vol.
13%
December 31
$2,399,412 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, followed by the Assembly of Experts' selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, has shifted authority toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and younger military figures. Mojtaba's prolonged absence from public view and key negotiations has fueled questions about effective control and institutional stability, while President Masoud Pezeshkian and other officials remain in place. Recent May 2026 statements from Iranian officials demanding security guarantees before resuming talks, alongside economic pressures and internal coordination efforts, highlight ongoing risks of further disruption or consolidation. Traders assess these developments against historical patterns of clerical succession and the impact of external military actions on regime continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volume
$13,712,443End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, followed by the Assembly of Experts' selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, has shifted authority toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and younger military figures. Mojtaba's prolonged absence from public view and key negotiations has fueled questions about effective control and institutional stability, while President Masoud Pezeshkian and other officials remain in place. Recent May 2026 statements from Iranian officials demanding security guarantees before resuming talks, alongside economic pressures and internal coordination efforts, highlight ongoing risks of further disruption or consolidation. Traders assess these developments against historical patterns of clerical succession and the impact of external military actions on regime continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,712,443End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, followed by the Assembly of Experts' selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, has shifted authority toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and younger military figures. Mojtaba's prolonged absence from public view and key negotiations has fueled questions about effective control and institutional stability, while President Masoud Pezeshkian and other officials remain in place. Recent May 2026 statements from Iranian officials demanding security guarantees before resuming talks, alongside economic pressures and internal coordination efforts, highlight ongoing risks of further disruption or consolidation. Traders assess these developments against historical patterns of clerical succession and the impact of external military actions on regime continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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