**Denis Sassou Nguesso’s March 2026 re-election and April inauguration for a fifth term have anchored trader expectations that he will remain president through the end of 2026.** Official results showed him securing roughly 94.9% of the vote on a reported turnout above 84%, with the Constitutional Court confirming the outcome on 28 March; he was sworn in on 16 April. Constitutional amendments from 2015 removed prior age and term limits for this cycle, allowing the 82-year-old incumbent to seek and complete the current five-year mandate ending in 2031, after which limits are scheduled to resume. Opposition fragmentation, candidate restrictions during campaigning, and reports of low turnout at some polling stations did not alter the institutional outcome or generate credible challenges to his immediate tenure. Succession discussions within the ruling circle focus on the post-2031 period rather than any short-term transition. With no reported health events, military moves, or legislative actions that would trigger an earlier departure, the market’s 87% probability on “No” reflects the absence of any catalyst capable of removing Nguesso before December 2026.