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icon for Israel Election: Shas # of seats?
World·Israel

Israel Election: Shas # of seats?

icon for Israel Election: Shas # of seats?
World·Israel

Israel Election: Shas # of seats?

8-9 41%

10-11 21%

12+ 15%

6-7 14%

Polymarket
NEW

8-9 41%

10-11 21%

12+ 15%

6-7 14%

Polymarket
NEW

<6

$481 Vol.

5%

6-7

$1,390 Vol.

14%

8-9

$908 Vol.

41%

10-11

$683 Vol.

21%

12+

$1,286 Vol.

15%

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Shas at seven to nine Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with the 8-9 range capturing the largest share of trader probability. This positioning stems from consistent survey results showing the party below its 11 seats from 2022, amid challenges in mobilizing its Sephardi ultra-Orthodox base and competition within the religious bloc. The September 8 candidate list, featuring a reserve officer in a high spot and internal adjustments following reconciliation between Aryeh Deri and Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, reflects efforts to address conscription debates and broaden appeal without shifting core voter patterns. Recent surveys, including a Maariv poll placing Shas at seven seats, have reinforced the narrow band around eight seats as the central tendency in current projections.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$4,749
End Date
Oct 27, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Shas at seven to nine Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with the 8-9 range capturing the largest share of trader probability. This positioning stems from consistent survey results showing the party below its 11 seats from 2022, amid challenges in mobilizing its Sephardi ultra-Orthodox base and competition within the religious bloc. The September 8 candidate list, featuring a reserve officer in a high spot and internal adjustments following reconciliation between Aryeh Deri and Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, reflects efforts to address conscription debates and broaden appeal without shifting core voter patterns. Recent surveys, including a Maariv poll placing Shas at seven seats, have reinforced the narrow band around eight seats as the central tendency in current projections.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$4,749
End Date
Oct 27, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel Election: Shas # of seats?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "8-9" at 41%, followed by "10-11" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Israel Election: Shas # of seats?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Israel Election: Shas # of seats?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israel Election: Shas # of seats?" is "8-9" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "10-11" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israel Election: Shas # of seats?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.