**Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election place Likud at roughly 21–23 Knesset seats, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 election.** This gap underpins the 91.5% implied probability that Likud will lose seats. Sustained public dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the multi-front conflicts that began in October 2023 has eroded support for both the prime minister and his party. Multiple independent pollsters, including those commissioned by Maariv, Channel 13, Kantar, and others in mid-September 2026, show Likud trailing or tied with the new Yashar party led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot while the broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc hovers around 50–55 seats—short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Fragmentation on the right, including competition from parties such as Otzma Yehudit and newer entrants, combined with the consolidation of center-right and opposition votes behind figures like Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, has further compressed Likud’s projected share. These patterns have held across dozens of surveys conducted in the weeks leading up to the campaign’s final phase, producing a trader consensus that treats a material seat decline for Likud as the base-case outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated92% chance
$18,409 Vol.
$18,409 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
92% chance
$18,409 Vol.
$18,409 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election place Likud at roughly 21–23 Knesset seats, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 election.** This gap underpins the 91.5% implied probability that Likud will lose seats.
Sustained public dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the multi-front conflicts that began in October 2023 has eroded support for both the prime minister and his party. Multiple independent pollsters, including those commissioned by Maariv, Channel 13, Kantar, and others in mid-September 2026, show Likud trailing or tied with the new Yashar party led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot while the broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc hovers around 50–55 seats—short of the 61-seat majority threshold.
Fragmentation on the right, including competition from parties such as Otzma Yehudit and newer entrants, combined with the consolidation of center-right and opposition votes behind figures like Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, has further compressed Likud’s projected share. These patterns have held across dozens of surveys conducted in the weeks leading up to the campaign’s final phase, producing a trader consensus that treats a material seat decline for Likud as the base-case outcome.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$18,409End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election place Likud at roughly 21–23 Knesset seats, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 election.** This gap underpins the 91.5% implied probability that Likud will lose seats.
Sustained public dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the multi-front conflicts that began in October 2023 has eroded support for both the prime minister and his party. Multiple independent pollsters, including those commissioned by Maariv, Channel 13, Kantar, and others in mid-September 2026, show Likud trailing or tied with the new Yashar party led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot while the broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc hovers around 50–55 seats—short of the 61-seat majority threshold.
Fragmentation on the right, including competition from parties such as Otzma Yehudit and newer entrants, combined with the consolidation of center-right and opposition votes behind figures like Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, has further compressed Likud’s projected share. These patterns have held across dozens of surveys conducted in the weeks leading up to the campaign’s final phase, producing a trader consensus that treats a material seat decline for Likud as the base-case outcome.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$18,409End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling averages for Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election place Likud at roughly 21–23 Knesset seats, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 election.** This gap underpins the 91.5% implied probability that Likud will lose seats. Sustained public dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the multi-front conflicts that began in October 2023 has eroded support for both the prime minister and his party. Multiple independent pollsters, including those commissioned by Maariv, Channel 13, Kantar, and others in mid-September 2026, show Likud trailing or tied with the new Yashar party led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot while the broader Netanyahu-aligned bloc hovers around 50–55 seats—short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Fragmentation on the right, including competition from parties such as Otzma Yehudit and newer entrants, combined with the consolidation of center-right and opposition votes behind figures like Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, has further compressed Likud’s projected share. These patterns have held across dozens of surveys conducted in the weeks leading up to the campaign’s final phase, producing a trader consensus that treats a material seat decline for Likud as the base-case outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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