Ongoing Israeli airstrikes and ground operations in southern Lebanon, including strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure near Nabatieh and the Ali al-Taher ridge, continue amid a fragile U.S.-brokered framework from June 2026. Recent escalations, such as the deadly wave of attacks in early September and further bombardments into October, reflect efforts to consolidate a security buffer zone along the border while Hezbollah launches rockets and drones in response. Diplomatic talks for phased withdrawal and disarmament have stalled, with direct negotiations proposed but delayed by Israeli elections and verification disputes. UNIFIL's mandate nears expiration, and Lebanese army deployment remains limited, sustaining trader focus on the risk of expanded military action in the near term.