**Iván Cepeda secured 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, placing him squarely in the 40-45 percent range that now commands 98.5 percent probability on the market.** As the Historic Pact candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, Cepeda advanced to the June 21 runoff against Abelardo de la Espriella after official results were certified in early June. Traders have converged on this outcome because certified tallies from the National Electoral Commission and consistent polling averages confirmed his share, with no viable path for material revision. The closely contested first round, marked by de la Espriella’s stronger-than-expected performance and Cepeda’s shortfall of an outright majority, locked in the bracket. Remaining uncertainty centers on any final procedural challenges before runoff voting, though these appear limited given international observers’ validation of the process.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?
Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?
40-45% 98.8%
<30% <1%
30-35% <1%
55%+ <1%
$37,082 Vol.
$37,082 Vol.
31 mag 2026
<30%
1%
30-35%
1%
35-40%
<1%
40-45%
99%
45-50%
<1%
50-55%
<1%
55%+
<1%
40-45% 98.8%
<30% <1%
30-35% <1%
55%+ <1%
$37,082 Vol.
$37,082 Vol.
31 mag 2026
<30%
$7,027 Vol.
1%
30-35%
$2,454 Vol.
1%
35-40%
$4,030 Vol.
<1%
40-45%
$9,926 Vol.
99%
45-50%
$4,755 Vol.
<1%
50-55%
$4,158 Vol.
<1%
55%+
$4,732 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Iván Cepeda secured 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, placing him squarely in the 40-45 percent range that now commands 98.5 percent probability on the market.** As the Historic Pact candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, Cepeda advanced to the June 21 runoff against Abelardo de la Espriella after official results were certified in early June. Traders have converged on this outcome because certified tallies from the National Electoral Commission and consistent polling averages confirmed his share, with no viable path for material revision. The closely contested first round, marked by de la Espriella’s stronger-than-expected performance and Cepeda’s shortfall of an outright majority, locked in the bracket. Remaining uncertainty centers on any final procedural challenges before runoff voting, though these appear limited given international observers’ validation of the process.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ET
Volume
$37,082Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Iván Cepeda secured 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, placing him squarely in the 40-45 percent range that now commands 98.5 percent probability on the market.** As the Historic Pact candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, Cepeda advanced to the June 21 runoff against Abelardo de la Espriella after official results were certified in early June. Traders have converged on this outcome because certified tallies from the National Electoral Commission and consistent polling averages confirmed his share, with no viable path for material revision. The closely contested first round, marked by de la Espriella’s stronger-than-expected performance and Cepeda’s shortfall of an outright majority, locked in the bracket. Remaining uncertainty centers on any final procedural challenges before runoff voting, though these appear limited given international observers’ validation of the process.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.
If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$37,082Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Iván Cepeda secured 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election, placing him squarely in the 40-45 percent range that now commands 98.5 percent probability on the market.** As the Historic Pact candidate backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro, Cepeda advanced to the June 21 runoff against Abelardo de la Espriella after official results were certified in early June. Traders have converged on this outcome because certified tallies from the National Electoral Commission and consistent polling averages confirmed his share, with no viable path for material revision. The closely contested first round, marked by de la Espriella’s stronger-than-expected performance and Cepeda’s shortfall of an outright majority, locked in the bracket. Remaining uncertainty centers on any final procedural challenges before runoff voting, though these appear limited given international observers’ validation of the process.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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