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Politics·Primaries

LA-05 Republican Primary Winner

icon for LA-05 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

LA-05 Republican Primary Winner

Misti Cordell 3.3%

Blake Miguez 2.1%

Michael Mebruer 1.7%

Samuel Wyatt 1.7%

Polymarket

$63,989 Vol.

Misti Cordell 3.3%

Blake Miguez 2.1%

Michael Mebruer 1.7%

Samuel Wyatt 1.7%

Polymarket

$63,989 Vol.

Misti Cordell

$1,906 Vol.

3%

Blake Miguez

$31,554 Vol.

2%

Michael Mebruer

$1,333 Vol.

2%

Samuel Wyatt

$6,114 Vol.

2%

Rick Edmonds

$5,970 Vol.

2%

Austin Magee

$2,099 Vol.

2%

Michael Echols

$15,013 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The crowded Republican field for Louisiana's open 5th Congressional District seat features several state legislators and local figures competing in the November 3 jungle primary, with no candidate holding a dominant position among traders. Misti Cordell's recent Louisiana GOP endorsement has given her a narrow lead in market pricing, though the process drew criticism from rivals and highlighted internal party divisions. Contenders like Michael Echols, Stewart Cathey, and Gabe Firment bring legislative experience and regional bases in northeast Louisiana, while others such as Austin Magee and Michael Mebruer remain lesser-known. Redistricting shifts, uneven fundraising, and the absence of a unifying endorsement have kept probabilities fragmented. Further developments in polling, candidate withdrawals, or external support could consolidate support ahead of the primary and potential December runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$63,989
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 4:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The crowded Republican field for Louisiana's open 5th Congressional District seat features several state legislators and local figures competing in the November 3 jungle primary, with no candidate holding a dominant position among traders. Misti Cordell's recent Louisiana GOP endorsement has given her a narrow lead in market pricing, though the process drew criticism from rivals and highlighted internal party divisions. Contenders like Michael Echols, Stewart Cathey, and Gabe Firment bring legislative experience and regional bases in northeast Louisiana, while others such as Austin Magee and Michael Mebruer remain lesser-known. Redistricting shifts, uneven fundraising, and the absence of a unifying endorsement have kept probabilities fragmented. Further developments in polling, candidate withdrawals, or external support could consolidate support ahead of the primary and potential December runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$63,989
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 4:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"LA-05 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Misti Cordell" at 3%, followed by "Blake Miguez" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 3¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 3% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $64K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner" is "Misti Cordell" at just 3%, with "Blake Miguez" close behind at 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.