The open seat created by Democratic incumbent Cleo Fields’ July 2026 withdrawal to run for state Senate, combined with Louisiana’s post-April Supreme Court redistricting in Louisiana v. Callais, drives the Republican Party’s 93.5% trader consensus. The ruling invalidated the prior map’s second majority-Black district as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, shifting District 6 toward a more Republican-leaning composition with only one remaining majority-minority seat statewide. Multiple Republican candidates have entered the November jungle primary, positioning the party to consolidate support ahead of the December general election. A late surge by a strong Democratic contender, unusually low Republican primary turnout, or successful new legal challenges to the map could still narrow the margin, though such shifts appear limited by the current district lines and candidate field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLA-06 House Election Winner
LA-06 House Election Winner
$65,442 Vol.
$65,442 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$65,442 Vol.
$65,442 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$36,039 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$29,403 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat created by Democratic incumbent Cleo Fields’ July 2026 withdrawal to run for state Senate, combined with Louisiana’s post-April Supreme Court redistricting in Louisiana v. Callais, drives the Republican Party’s 93.5% trader consensus. The ruling invalidated the prior map’s second majority-Black district as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, shifting District 6 toward a more Republican-leaning composition with only one remaining majority-minority seat statewide. Multiple Republican candidates have entered the November jungle primary, positioning the party to consolidate support ahead of the December general election. A late surge by a strong Democratic contender, unusually low Republican primary turnout, or successful new legal challenges to the map could still narrow the margin, though such shifts appear limited by the current district lines and candidate field.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$65,442End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat created by Democratic incumbent Cleo Fields’ July 2026 withdrawal to run for state Senate, combined with Louisiana’s post-April Supreme Court redistricting in Louisiana v. Callais, drives the Republican Party’s 93.5% trader consensus. The ruling invalidated the prior map’s second majority-Black district as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, shifting District 6 toward a more Republican-leaning composition with only one remaining majority-minority seat statewide. Multiple Republican candidates have entered the November jungle primary, positioning the party to consolidate support ahead of the December general election. A late surge by a strong Democratic contender, unusually low Republican primary turnout, or successful new legal challenges to the map could still narrow the margin, though such shifts appear limited by the current district lines and candidate field.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$65,442End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat created by Democratic incumbent Cleo Fields’ July 2026 withdrawal to run for state Senate, combined with Louisiana’s post-April Supreme Court redistricting in Louisiana v. Callais, drives the Republican Party’s 93.5% trader consensus. The ruling invalidated the prior map’s second majority-Black district as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, shifting District 6 toward a more Republican-leaning composition with only one remaining majority-minority seat statewide. Multiple Republican candidates have entered the November jungle primary, positioning the party to consolidate support ahead of the December general election. A late surge by a strong Democratic contender, unusually low Republican primary turnout, or successful new legal challenges to the map could still narrow the margin, though such shifts appear limited by the current district lines and candidate field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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