**Clear skies and light winds overnight have supported strong radiative cooling across the Amsterdam region, positioning 9°C as the dominant market outcome at 90% implied probability.** Official forecasts from sources using GFS and similar models show the minimum temperature settling near 8–10°C, consistent with the September climatological average low of 10.1°C but tempered by current high-pressure conditions and dew points in the mid-teens Celsius that limit further drops. Recent model runs indicate minimal cloud cover and southerly flow shifting northerly, reducing mixing and favoring the observed cooling trajectory. Historical extremes for the date range from 3.6°C to over 16°C, yet current atmospheric stability and lack of frontal activity make deviations below 7°C or above 10°C far less likely in the final hours before resolution. Updated observations through the night will determine whether the market-implied odds hold.