Recent numerical weather prediction models diverge on Ankara’s minimum temperature for September 7, with some European and global ensembles projecting nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and northerly flow to 7–10 °C, while others maintain 14–15 °C lows amid slightly stronger mixing or warmer advection. This spread in boundary-layer forecasts, typical two days ahead, underpins the balanced market-implied odds near 9 °C versus 19 °C thresholds and the clustering around 14 °C. Official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance and ensemble consensus will narrow as short-range runs update through the weekend.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 7?
9°C or below 100%
19°C or higher 100%
14°C 88%
18°C 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
100%
10°C
49%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
26%
14°C
88%
15°C
49%
16°C
49%
17°C
2%
18°C
88%
19°C or higher
100%
9°C or below 100%
19°C or higher 100%
14°C 88%
18°C 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
88%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
88%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models diverge on Ankara’s minimum temperature for September 7, with some European and global ensembles projecting nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and northerly flow to 7–10 °C, while others maintain 14–15 °C lows amid slightly stronger mixing or warmer advection. This spread in boundary-layer forecasts, typical two days ahead, underpins the balanced market-implied odds near 9 °C versus 19 °C thresholds and the clustering around 14 °C. Official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance and ensemble consensus will narrow as short-range runs update through the weekend.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models diverge on Ankara’s minimum temperature for September 7, with some European and global ensembles projecting nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and northerly flow to 7–10 °C, while others maintain 14–15 °C lows amid slightly stronger mixing or warmer advection. This spread in boundary-layer forecasts, typical two days ahead, underpins the balanced market-implied odds near 9 °C versus 19 °C thresholds and the clustering around 14 °C. Official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance and ensemble consensus will narrow as short-range runs update through the weekend.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models diverge on Ankara’s minimum temperature for September 7, with some European and global ensembles projecting nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies and northerly flow to 7–10 °C, while others maintain 14–15 °C lows amid slightly stronger mixing or warmer advection. This spread in boundary-layer forecasts, typical two days ahead, underpins the balanced market-implied odds near 9 °C versus 19 °C thresholds and the clustering around 14 °C. Official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance and ensemble consensus will narrow as short-range runs update through the weekend.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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