**Trader sentiment for Busan's September 4 minimum temperature reflects substantial forecast uncertainty between roughly 21–27 °C, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 44 % for those outcomes.** Current numerical weather guidance shows northeasterly flow strengthening on September 3–4, advecting cooler maritime air across the East Sea while increasing wind speeds to 15–20 mph. This reduces nocturnal radiative cooling and elevates the overnight minimum compared with calm conditions. Cloud cover and any patchy light precipitation further modulate the temperature by limiting longwave heat loss or providing slight evaporative cooling. Model consensus points to a most-likely minimum near 24–25 °C, close to early-September climatology (historical average low ~22 °C), yet small differences in predicted wind strength, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any frontal passage can shift the realized minimum by several degrees. The balanced market prices capture this genuine spread in ensemble guidance rather than a single deterministic outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Busan on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Busan on September 4?
21°C 88%
22°C 88%
23°C 88%
24°C 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
69%
21°C
88%
22°C
88%
23°C
88%
24°C
88%
25°C
88%
26°C
88%
27°C
88%
28°C
2%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
59%
21°C 88%
22°C 88%
23°C 88%
24°C 88%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
21°C
$0 Vol.
88%
22°C
$0 Vol.
88%
23°C
$0 Vol.
88%
24°C
$0 Vol.
88%
25°C
$0 Vol.
88%
26°C
$0 Vol.
88%
27°C
$0 Vol.
88%
28°C
$0 Vol.
2%
29°C
$0 Vol.
7%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Busan's September 4 minimum temperature reflects substantial forecast uncertainty between roughly 21–27 °C, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 44 % for those outcomes.**
Current numerical weather guidance shows northeasterly flow strengthening on September 3–4, advecting cooler maritime air across the East Sea while increasing wind speeds to 15–20 mph. This reduces nocturnal radiative cooling and elevates the overnight minimum compared with calm conditions. Cloud cover and any patchy light precipitation further modulate the temperature by limiting longwave heat loss or providing slight evaporative cooling.
Model consensus points to a most-likely minimum near 24–25 °C, close to early-September climatology (historical average low ~22 °C), yet small differences in predicted wind strength, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any frontal passage can shift the realized minimum by several degrees. The balanced market prices capture this genuine spread in ensemble guidance rather than a single deterministic outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Busan's September 4 minimum temperature reflects substantial forecast uncertainty between roughly 21–27 °C, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 44 % for those outcomes.**
Current numerical weather guidance shows northeasterly flow strengthening on September 3–4, advecting cooler maritime air across the East Sea while increasing wind speeds to 15–20 mph. This reduces nocturnal radiative cooling and elevates the overnight minimum compared with calm conditions. Cloud cover and any patchy light precipitation further modulate the temperature by limiting longwave heat loss or providing slight evaporative cooling.
Model consensus points to a most-likely minimum near 24–25 °C, close to early-September climatology (historical average low ~22 °C), yet small differences in predicted wind strength, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any frontal passage can shift the realized minimum by several degrees. The balanced market prices capture this genuine spread in ensemble guidance rather than a single deterministic outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpkResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Busan's September 4 minimum temperature reflects substantial forecast uncertainty between roughly 21–27 °C, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 44 % for those outcomes.** Current numerical weather guidance shows northeasterly flow strengthening on September 3–4, advecting cooler maritime air across the East Sea while increasing wind speeds to 15–20 mph. This reduces nocturnal radiative cooling and elevates the overnight minimum compared with calm conditions. Cloud cover and any patchy light precipitation further modulate the temperature by limiting longwave heat loss or providing slight evaporative cooling. Model consensus points to a most-likely minimum near 24–25 °C, close to early-September climatology (historical average low ~22 °C), yet small differences in predicted wind strength, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any frontal passage can shift the realized minimum by several degrees. The balanced market prices capture this genuine spread in ensemble guidance rather than a single deterministic outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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