**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions a minimum temperature of 13°C as the most likely outcome for Cape Town on September 9, 2026, driving the 73% market-implied probability.** Recent observations and springtime conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, with typical high-pressure influence and south-southeasterly winds, support overnight lows settling near 13–14°C after daytime highs around 20–21°C. Sources such as WeatherBug, Yr.no, and local reports indicate partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk and dew points consistent with these ranges, aligning trader sentiment with the narrow band between 12°C and 13°C. Model agreement remains strong absent any incoming cold front or unusual advection, though minor revisions in real-time data could shift probabilities toward the 26.5% odds on 12°C if early-morning readings dip slightly lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 9?
13°C 96%
12°C 26%
11°C 21%
10°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
21%
12°C
26%
13°C
74%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
13°C 96%
12°C 26%
11°C 21%
10°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
10°C or below
$99 Vol.
1%
11°C
$46 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$156 Vol.
74%
14°C
$1,365 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$63 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$300 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$120 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$295 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$179 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$180 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions a minimum temperature of 13°C as the most likely outcome for Cape Town on September 9, 2026, driving the 73% market-implied probability.** Recent observations and springtime conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, with typical high-pressure influence and south-southeasterly winds, support overnight lows settling near 13–14°C after daytime highs around 20–21°C. Sources such as WeatherBug, Yr.no, and local reports indicate partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk and dew points consistent with these ranges, aligning trader sentiment with the narrow band between 12°C and 13°C. Model agreement remains strong absent any incoming cold front or unusual advection, though minor revisions in real-time data could shift probabilities toward the 26.5% odds on 12°C if early-morning readings dip slightly lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$2,802End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions a minimum temperature of 13°C as the most likely outcome for Cape Town on September 9, 2026, driving the 73% market-implied probability.** Recent observations and springtime conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, with typical high-pressure influence and south-southeasterly winds, support overnight lows settling near 13–14°C after daytime highs around 20–21°C. Sources such as WeatherBug, Yr.no, and local reports indicate partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk and dew points consistent with these ranges, aligning trader sentiment with the narrow band between 12°C and 13°C. Model agreement remains strong absent any incoming cold front or unusual advection, though minor revisions in real-time data could shift probabilities toward the 26.5% odds on 12°C if early-morning readings dip slightly lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,802End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple models positions a minimum temperature of 13°C as the most likely outcome for Cape Town on September 9, 2026, driving the 73% market-implied probability.** Recent observations and springtime conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, with typical high-pressure influence and south-southeasterly winds, support overnight lows settling near 13–14°C after daytime highs around 20–21°C. Sources such as WeatherBug, Yr.no, and local reports indicate partly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk and dew points consistent with these ranges, aligning trader sentiment with the narrow band between 12°C and 13°C. Model agreement remains strong absent any incoming cold front or unusual advection, though minor revisions in real-time data could shift probabilities toward the 26.5% odds on 12°C if early-morning readings dip slightly lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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