**Recent typhoon activity and associated atmospheric dynamics are the dominant drivers of trader uncertainty in this market.** Typhoon Saudel has reintensified over the northwestern South China Sea and is tracking near Guangdong’s coast, delivering persistent cloud cover, scattered to widespread rain, and enhanced northeasterly flow that can suppress daytime heating while moderating overnight radiative cooling. Official and model guidance for Guangzhou’s September 4 minimum generally clusters in the 21–25 °C range, consistent with climatological September lows near 24–25 °C, yet the storm’s exact proximity, intensity, and interaction with a broader low-pressure trough introduce notable spread. Ensemble variability in steering and rainfall timing creates the observed market symmetry: stronger or more prolonged onshore flow and heavier nocturnal rain could push the minimum toward or below 20 °C, while quicker eastward departure or clearer breaks could allow readings near or above 26–28 °C. With resolution only two days away and new model runs plus updated National Meteorological Centre guidance expected shortly, traders are pricing the full range of physically plausible outcomes rather than converging on the central forecast cluster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 4?
18°C or below 69%
28°C or higher 69%
23°C 50%
24°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
18°C or below
69%
19°C
18%
20°C
49%
21°C
49%
22°C
49%
23°C
50%
24°C
50%
25°C
49%
26°C
49%
27°C
31%
28°C or higher
69%
18°C or below 69%
28°C or higher 69%
23°C 50%
24°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
19°C
$0 Vol.
18%
20°C
$0 Vol.
49%
21°C
$0 Vol.
49%
22°C
$0 Vol.
49%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$0 Vol.
49%
26°C
$0 Vol.
49%
27°C
$0 Vol.
31%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent typhoon activity and associated atmospheric dynamics are the dominant drivers of trader uncertainty in this market.** Typhoon Saudel has reintensified over the northwestern South China Sea and is tracking near Guangdong’s coast, delivering persistent cloud cover, scattered to widespread rain, and enhanced northeasterly flow that can suppress daytime heating while moderating overnight radiative cooling. Official and model guidance for Guangzhou’s September 4 minimum generally clusters in the 21–25 °C range, consistent with climatological September lows near 24–25 °C, yet the storm’s exact proximity, intensity, and interaction with a broader low-pressure trough introduce notable spread.
Ensemble variability in steering and rainfall timing creates the observed market symmetry: stronger or more prolonged onshore flow and heavier nocturnal rain could push the minimum toward or below 20 °C, while quicker eastward departure or clearer breaks could allow readings near or above 26–28 °C. With resolution only two days away and new model runs plus updated National Meteorological Centre guidance expected shortly, traders are pricing the full range of physically plausible outcomes rather than converging on the central forecast cluster.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent typhoon activity and associated atmospheric dynamics are the dominant drivers of trader uncertainty in this market.** Typhoon Saudel has reintensified over the northwestern South China Sea and is tracking near Guangdong’s coast, delivering persistent cloud cover, scattered to widespread rain, and enhanced northeasterly flow that can suppress daytime heating while moderating overnight radiative cooling. Official and model guidance for Guangzhou’s September 4 minimum generally clusters in the 21–25 °C range, consistent with climatological September lows near 24–25 °C, yet the storm’s exact proximity, intensity, and interaction with a broader low-pressure trough introduce notable spread.
Ensemble variability in steering and rainfall timing creates the observed market symmetry: stronger or more prolonged onshore flow and heavier nocturnal rain could push the minimum toward or below 20 °C, while quicker eastward departure or clearer breaks could allow readings near or above 26–28 °C. With resolution only two days away and new model runs plus updated National Meteorological Centre guidance expected shortly, traders are pricing the full range of physically plausible outcomes rather than converging on the central forecast cluster.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent typhoon activity and associated atmospheric dynamics are the dominant drivers of trader uncertainty in this market.** Typhoon Saudel has reintensified over the northwestern South China Sea and is tracking near Guangdong’s coast, delivering persistent cloud cover, scattered to widespread rain, and enhanced northeasterly flow that can suppress daytime heating while moderating overnight radiative cooling. Official and model guidance for Guangzhou’s September 4 minimum generally clusters in the 21–25 °C range, consistent with climatological September lows near 24–25 °C, yet the storm’s exact proximity, intensity, and interaction with a broader low-pressure trough introduce notable spread. Ensemble variability in steering and rainfall timing creates the observed market symmetry: stronger or more prolonged onshore flow and heavier nocturnal rain could push the minimum toward or below 20 °C, while quicker eastward departure or clearer breaks could allow readings near or above 26–28 °C. With resolution only two days away and new model runs plus updated National Meteorological Centre guidance expected shortly, traders are pricing the full range of physically plausible outcomes rather than converging on the central forecast cluster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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