Recent forecasts for Hong Kong indicate typical early-August conditions with overnight lows near 26°C amid scattered showers and high humidity, supporting trader emphasis on 25–26°C outcomes as the most probable daily minimums. Seasonal guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory projects normal to above-normal temperatures through October, consistent with long-term warming trends that limit cooler scenarios below 24°C. Key variables include the timing and intensity of convective rain, which can suppress nighttime cooling, versus clearer periods that allow greater radiative heat loss; model spread in steering patterns and cloud cover adds uncertainty across the 22–28°C range. Official updates on August 3–4 will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?
21°C or below 43%
25°C 37%
26°C 22%
24°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
21°C or below
43%
22°C
12%
23°C
12%
24°C
19%
25°C
37%
26°C
22%
27°C
17%
28°C
13%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
21°C or below 43%
25°C 37%
26°C 22%
24°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
21°C or below
$42 Vol.
43%
22°C
$42 Vol.
12%
23°C
$0 Vol.
12%
24°C
$0 Vol.
19%
25°C
$10 Vol.
37%
26°C
$0 Vol.
22%
27°C
$0 Vol.
17%
28°C
$10 Vol.
13%
29°C
$32 Vol.
1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts for Hong Kong indicate typical early-August conditions with overnight lows near 26°C amid scattered showers and high humidity, supporting trader emphasis on 25–26°C outcomes as the most probable daily minimums. Seasonal guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory projects normal to above-normal temperatures through October, consistent with long-term warming trends that limit cooler scenarios below 24°C. Key variables include the timing and intensity of convective rain, which can suppress nighttime cooling, versus clearer periods that allow greater radiative heat loss; model spread in steering patterns and cloud cover adds uncertainty across the 22–28°C range. Official updates on August 3–4 will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$135End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts for Hong Kong indicate typical early-August conditions with overnight lows near 26°C amid scattered showers and high humidity, supporting trader emphasis on 25–26°C outcomes as the most probable daily minimums. Seasonal guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory projects normal to above-normal temperatures through October, consistent with long-term warming trends that limit cooler scenarios below 24°C. Key variables include the timing and intensity of convective rain, which can suppress nighttime cooling, versus clearer periods that allow greater radiative heat loss; model spread in steering patterns and cloud cover adds uncertainty across the 22–28°C range. Official updates on August 3–4 will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$135End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Hong Kong indicate typical early-August conditions with overnight lows near 26°C amid scattered showers and high humidity, supporting trader emphasis on 25–26°C outcomes as the most probable daily minimums. Seasonal guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory projects normal to above-normal temperatures through October, consistent with long-term warming trends that limit cooler scenarios below 24°C. Key variables include the timing and intensity of convective rain, which can suppress nighttime cooling, versus clearer periods that allow greater radiative heat loss; model spread in steering patterns and cloud cover adds uncertainty across the 22–28°C range. Official updates on August 3–4 will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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