Latest short-range ensemble guidance from Environment Canada and NOAA places Toronto’s August 2 maximum near 23–24 °C, with the 22–25 °C outcomes commanding roughly 97 % combined market-implied probability. Daytime heating will be modulated by a weakening warm-sector flow, modest mid-level moisture, and possible afternoon cloud build-up that limits insolation. Small differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the exact timing of any passing weak trough explain the narrow spread among the leading bins. Historical early-August analogs under comparable steering patterns rarely exceed 26 °C without strong subsidence, accounting for the steep probability drop-off above that threshold. Traders are closely monitoring the next 12–24 h model updates and surface observations that will set the official high before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on August 2?
Highest temperature in Toronto on August 2?
24°C 33%
23°C 27%
22°C 23%
25°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
23%
23°C
27%
24°C
33%
25°C
17%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 33%
23°C 27%
22°C 23%
25°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
20°C or below
$286 Vol.
1%
21°C
$427 Vol.
3%
22°C
$4,262 Vol.
23%
23°C
$478 Vol.
27%
24°C
$1,107 Vol.
33%
25°C
$831 Vol.
17%
26°C
$292 Vol.
2%
27°C
$246 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$191 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$289 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$287 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range ensemble guidance from Environment Canada and NOAA places Toronto’s August 2 maximum near 23–24 °C, with the 22–25 °C outcomes commanding roughly 97 % combined market-implied probability. Daytime heating will be modulated by a weakening warm-sector flow, modest mid-level moisture, and possible afternoon cloud build-up that limits insolation. Small differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the exact timing of any passing weak trough explain the narrow spread among the leading bins. Historical early-August analogs under comparable steering patterns rarely exceed 26 °C without strong subsidence, accounting for the steep probability drop-off above that threshold. Traders are closely monitoring the next 12–24 h model updates and surface observations that will set the official high before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$8,696End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range ensemble guidance from Environment Canada and NOAA places Toronto’s August 2 maximum near 23–24 °C, with the 22–25 °C outcomes commanding roughly 97 % combined market-implied probability. Daytime heating will be modulated by a weakening warm-sector flow, modest mid-level moisture, and possible afternoon cloud build-up that limits insolation. Small differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the exact timing of any passing weak trough explain the narrow spread among the leading bins. Historical early-August analogs under comparable steering patterns rarely exceed 26 °C without strong subsidence, accounting for the steep probability drop-off above that threshold. Traders are closely monitoring the next 12–24 h model updates and surface observations that will set the official high before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,696End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest short-range ensemble guidance from Environment Canada and NOAA places Toronto’s August 2 maximum near 23–24 °C, with the 22–25 °C outcomes commanding roughly 97 % combined market-implied probability. Daytime heating will be modulated by a weakening warm-sector flow, modest mid-level moisture, and possible afternoon cloud build-up that limits insolation. Small differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the exact timing of any passing weak trough explain the narrow spread among the leading bins. Historical early-August analogs under comparable steering patterns rarely exceed 26 °C without strong subsidence, accounting for the steep probability drop-off above that threshold. Traders are closely monitoring the next 12–24 h model updates and surface observations that will set the official high before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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