Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a daily maximum near 30–33°C on August 3 amid the southwest monsoon, with 60% rain chances and widespread cloud cover expected to limit solar heating. High humidity and scattered thunderstorms further suppress peak temperatures by reducing insolation and promoting evaporative cooling, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 28–30°C. Model consensus shows modest day-to-day variability driven by the timing and intensity of convective activity, while historical August averages near 31°C provide a baseline. Updated model runs and morning briefings on August 2 will likely refine the precise threshold traders favor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 3?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 3?
29°C 32%
28°C 25%
30°C 23%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
7%
28°C
25%
29°C
32%
30°C
23%
31°C
9%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
2%
29°C 32%
28°C 25%
30°C 23%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
24°C or below
$286 Vol.
1%
25°C
$302 Vol.
1%
26°C
$170 Vol.
2%
27°C
$92 Vol.
7%
28°C
$137 Vol.
25%
29°C
$0 Vol.
32%
30°C
$13 Vol.
23%
31°C
$40 Vol.
9%
32°C
$91 Vol.
2%
33°C
$74 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$21 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a daily maximum near 30–33°C on August 3 amid the southwest monsoon, with 60% rain chances and widespread cloud cover expected to limit solar heating. High humidity and scattered thunderstorms further suppress peak temperatures by reducing insolation and promoting evaporative cooling, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 28–30°C. Model consensus shows modest day-to-day variability driven by the timing and intensity of convective activity, while historical August averages near 31°C provide a baseline. Updated model runs and morning briefings on August 2 will likely refine the precise threshold traders favor.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$1,226End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a daily maximum near 30–33°C on August 3 amid the southwest monsoon, with 60% rain chances and widespread cloud cover expected to limit solar heating. High humidity and scattered thunderstorms further suppress peak temperatures by reducing insolation and promoting evaporative cooling, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 28–30°C. Model consensus shows modest day-to-day variability driven by the timing and intensity of convective activity, while historical August averages near 31°C provide a baseline. Updated model runs and morning briefings on August 2 will likely refine the precise threshold traders favor.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,226End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a daily maximum near 30–33°C on August 3 amid the southwest monsoon, with 60% rain chances and widespread cloud cover expected to limit solar heating. High humidity and scattered thunderstorms further suppress peak temperatures by reducing insolation and promoting evaporative cooling, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 28–30°C. Model consensus shows modest day-to-day variability driven by the timing and intensity of convective activity, while historical August averages near 31°C provide a baseline. Updated model runs and morning briefings on August 2 will likely refine the precise threshold traders favor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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