Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and regional models shows spread in peak temperatures for Amsterdam on August 4, with most solutions clustered near 28–30°C amid variable cloud cover and a moderating North Sea breeze. This uncertainty explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C or below (34.5%) and 30°C (27.5%), with lower probabilities for 29°C or warmer outcomes. Coastal location and potential for onshore flow limit extremes relative to inland areas, while any clearing under high pressure could push readings slightly higher. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 4?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 4?
28°C or below 32%
30°C 27%
31°C 27%
29°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
28°C or below
32%
29°C
17%
30°C
27%
31°C
27%
32°C
6%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
28°C or below 32%
30°C 27%
31°C 27%
29°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
28°C or below
$93 Vol.
32%
29°C
$41 Vol.
17%
30°C
$42 Vol.
27%
31°C
$114 Vol.
27%
32°C
$59 Vol.
6%
33°C
$56 Vol.
2%
34°C
$84 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$57 Vol.
1%
36°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$37 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and regional models shows spread in peak temperatures for Amsterdam on August 4, with most solutions clustered near 28–30°C amid variable cloud cover and a moderating North Sea breeze. This uncertainty explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C or below (34.5%) and 30°C (27.5%), with lower probabilities for 29°C or warmer outcomes. Coastal location and potential for onshore flow limit extremes relative to inland areas, while any clearing under high pressure could push readings slightly higher. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$667End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and regional models shows spread in peak temperatures for Amsterdam on August 4, with most solutions clustered near 28–30°C amid variable cloud cover and a moderating North Sea breeze. This uncertainty explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C or below (34.5%) and 30°C (27.5%), with lower probabilities for 29°C or warmer outcomes. Coastal location and potential for onshore flow limit extremes relative to inland areas, while any clearing under high pressure could push readings slightly higher. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$667End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and regional models shows spread in peak temperatures for Amsterdam on August 4, with most solutions clustered near 28–30°C amid variable cloud cover and a moderating North Sea breeze. This uncertainty explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C or below (34.5%) and 30°C (27.5%), with lower probabilities for 29°C or warmer outcomes. Coastal location and potential for onshore flow limit extremes relative to inland areas, while any clearing under high pressure could push readings slightly higher. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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