**Trader consensus in the Istanbul highest temperature market clusters tightly around 28–29°C**, reflecting alignment with long-term August climatology and the latest short-range forecast guidance. Typical daily maxima in Istanbul during early August average 28–30°C under the influence of the region’s Mediterranean climate, moderated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Black Sea that frequently cap afternoon peaks. Recent model consensus and observational trends show no strong anomalous heatwave or blocking high-pressure setup that would push readings significantly above this baseline, keeping the bulk of probability mass (82.5% combined) on 28°C and 29°C. Higher outcomes (30°C+) carry only 18.5% implied probability, consistent with the historical rarity of exceeding seasonal norms without clear synoptic drivers, while cooler results remain low-probability tails. With resolution only two days away, updates from official monitoring networks will determine whether any last-minute adjustments to steering patterns or boundary-layer moisture alter this distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 4?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 4?
28°C 47%
29°C 37%
30°C 13%
27°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
6%
28°C
47%
29°C
37%
30°C
13%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
2%
28°C 47%
29°C 37%
30°C 13%
27°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$31 Vol.
1%
26°C
$16 Vol.
3%
27°C
$26 Vol.
6%
28°C
$56 Vol.
47%
29°C
$5 Vol.
37%
30°C
$23 Vol.
13%
31°C
$6 Vol.
2%
32°C
$0 Vol.
2%
33°C
$30 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus in the Istanbul highest temperature market clusters tightly around 28–29°C**, reflecting alignment with long-term August climatology and the latest short-range forecast guidance. Typical daily maxima in Istanbul during early August average 28–30°C under the influence of the region’s Mediterranean climate, moderated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Black Sea that frequently cap afternoon peaks. Recent model consensus and observational trends show no strong anomalous heatwave or blocking high-pressure setup that would push readings significantly above this baseline, keeping the bulk of probability mass (82.5% combined) on 28°C and 29°C. Higher outcomes (30°C+) carry only 18.5% implied probability, consistent with the historical rarity of exceeding seasonal norms without clear synoptic drivers, while cooler results remain low-probability tails. With resolution only two days away, updates from official monitoring networks will determine whether any last-minute adjustments to steering patterns or boundary-layer moisture alter this distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$204End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus in the Istanbul highest temperature market clusters tightly around 28–29°C**, reflecting alignment with long-term August climatology and the latest short-range forecast guidance. Typical daily maxima in Istanbul during early August average 28–30°C under the influence of the region’s Mediterranean climate, moderated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Black Sea that frequently cap afternoon peaks. Recent model consensus and observational trends show no strong anomalous heatwave or blocking high-pressure setup that would push readings significantly above this baseline, keeping the bulk of probability mass (82.5% combined) on 28°C and 29°C. Higher outcomes (30°C+) carry only 18.5% implied probability, consistent with the historical rarity of exceeding seasonal norms without clear synoptic drivers, while cooler results remain low-probability tails. With resolution only two days away, updates from official monitoring networks will determine whether any last-minute adjustments to steering patterns or boundary-layer moisture alter this distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$204End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus in the Istanbul highest temperature market clusters tightly around 28–29°C**, reflecting alignment with long-term August climatology and the latest short-range forecast guidance. Typical daily maxima in Istanbul during early August average 28–30°C under the influence of the region’s Mediterranean climate, moderated by sea breezes from the Bosphorus and Black Sea that frequently cap afternoon peaks. Recent model consensus and observational trends show no strong anomalous heatwave or blocking high-pressure setup that would push readings significantly above this baseline, keeping the bulk of probability mass (82.5% combined) on 28°C and 29°C. Higher outcomes (30°C+) carry only 18.5% implied probability, consistent with the historical rarity of exceeding seasonal norms without clear synoptic drivers, while cooler results remain low-probability tails. With resolution only two days away, updates from official monitoring networks will determine whether any last-minute adjustments to steering patterns or boundary-layer moisture alter this distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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