Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal warmth forecasted by the Japan Meteorological Agency continue to dominate Tokyo's early August environment, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 22–23°C on August 4. Mostly cloudy conditions further reduce heat loss, while elevated humidity from the Pacific air mass maintains elevated overnight readings compared with historical August averages of 24–25°C. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, with limited model spread on steering patterns or frontal passages that could allow stronger cooling. Traders price the narrow gap between 22°C and 23°C outcomes as the resolution hinges on official station observations under these stable synoptic conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?
22°C 72%
23°C 47%
24°C 14%
21°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
4%
20°C
8%
21°C
12%
22°C
51%
23°C
47%
24°C
14%
25°C
8%
26°C
10%
27°C or higher
1%
22°C 72%
23°C 47%
24°C 14%
21°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
17°C or below
$28 Vol.
1%
18°C
$31 Vol.
2%
19°C
$31 Vol.
4%
20°C
$8 Vol.
8%
21°C
$8 Vol.
12%
22°C
$13 Vol.
51%
23°C
$8 Vol.
47%
24°C
$8 Vol.
14%
25°C
$8 Vol.
8%
26°C
$20 Vol.
10%
27°C or higher
$314 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal warmth forecasted by the Japan Meteorological Agency continue to dominate Tokyo's early August environment, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 22–23°C on August 4. Mostly cloudy conditions further reduce heat loss, while elevated humidity from the Pacific air mass maintains elevated overnight readings compared with historical August averages of 24–25°C. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, with limited model spread on steering patterns or frontal passages that could allow stronger cooling. Traders price the narrow gap between 22°C and 23°C outcomes as the resolution hinges on official station observations under these stable synoptic conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$473End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal warmth forecasted by the Japan Meteorological Agency continue to dominate Tokyo's early August environment, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 22–23°C on August 4. Mostly cloudy conditions further reduce heat loss, while elevated humidity from the Pacific air mass maintains elevated overnight readings compared with historical August averages of 24–25°C. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, with limited model spread on steering patterns or frontal passages that could allow stronger cooling. Traders price the narrow gap between 22°C and 23°C outcomes as the resolution hinges on official station observations under these stable synoptic conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$473End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal warmth forecasted by the Japan Meteorological Agency continue to dominate Tokyo's early August environment, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 22–23°C on August 4. Mostly cloudy conditions further reduce heat loss, while elevated humidity from the Pacific air mass maintains elevated overnight readings compared with historical August averages of 24–25°C. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, with limited model spread on steering patterns or frontal passages that could allow stronger cooling. Traders price the narrow gap between 22°C and 23°C outcomes as the resolution hinges on official station observations under these stable synoptic conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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