Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like the Russian Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow highs near 25–27°C on August 4 under variable high pressure and light winds, driving the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Ensemble spreads in temperature advection and boundary-layer mixing create the differentiation, with modest cloud cover or slight shifts in the polar front potentially capping or boosting readings by 1–2°C. Historical August baselines near 22–23°C provide context, but current model consensus favors the upper end of the distribution amid lingering summer warmth, though uncertainty remains elevated within two days of the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 4?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 4?
26°C 37%
25°C 27%
27°C 22%
24°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
11%
24°C
19%
25°C
27%
26°C
32%
27°C
22%
28°C
5%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
3%
26°C 37%
25°C 27%
27°C 22%
24°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$15 Vol.
1%
22°C
$37 Vol.
3%
23°C
$25 Vol.
11%
24°C
$0 Vol.
19%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$13 Vol.
32%
27°C
$0 Vol.
22%
28°C
$4 Vol.
5%
29°C
$20 Vol.
3%
30°C or higher
$32 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like the Russian Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow highs near 25–27°C on August 4 under variable high pressure and light winds, driving the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Ensemble spreads in temperature advection and boundary-layer mixing create the differentiation, with modest cloud cover or slight shifts in the polar front potentially capping or boosting readings by 1–2°C. Historical August baselines near 22–23°C provide context, but current model consensus favors the upper end of the distribution amid lingering summer warmth, though uncertainty remains elevated within two days of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$152End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like the Russian Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow highs near 25–27°C on August 4 under variable high pressure and light winds, driving the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Ensemble spreads in temperature advection and boundary-layer mixing create the differentiation, with modest cloud cover or slight shifts in the polar front potentially capping or boosting readings by 1–2°C. Historical August baselines near 22–23°C provide context, but current model consensus favors the upper end of the distribution amid lingering summer warmth, though uncertainty remains elevated within two days of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$152End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like the Russian Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow highs near 25–27°C on August 4 under variable high pressure and light winds, driving the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Ensemble spreads in temperature advection and boundary-layer mixing create the differentiation, with modest cloud cover or slight shifts in the polar front potentially capping or boosting readings by 1–2°C. Historical August baselines near 22–23°C provide context, but current model consensus favors the upper end of the distribution amid lingering summer warmth, though uncertainty remains elevated within two days of the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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