Current short-term forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the Yellow Sea region through September 4, supporting overnight radiative cooling to lows near 20–21°C—close to early-September climatological norms of 19–22°C for Qingdao’s coastal setting. This positioning creates balanced market-implied odds around the 14°C and 24°C thresholds because minor variations in wind speed (northeast 3–4 m/s), humidity (60–75%), or cloud cover could shift the minimum by 2–3°C via altered heat retention, while the clustered 25% probabilities on 15–23°C outcomes reflect trader assessment of typical model spread in local temperature forecasts. No incoming cold fronts or tropical systems are expected in the next 48 hours to drive larger deviations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 4?
24°C or higher 100%
14°C or below 98%
16°C 50%
15°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
14°C or below
98%
15°C
49%
16°C
50%
17°C
49%
18°C
49%
19°C
49%
20°C
49%
21°C
49%
22°C
2%
23°C
49%
24°C or higher
100%
24°C or higher 100%
14°C or below 98%
16°C 50%
15°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
98%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
50%
17°C
$0 Vol.
49%
18°C
$0 Vol.
49%
19°C
$0 Vol.
49%
20°C
$0 Vol.
49%
21°C
$0 Vol.
49%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
49%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the Yellow Sea region through September 4, supporting overnight radiative cooling to lows near 20–21°C—close to early-September climatological norms of 19–22°C for Qingdao’s coastal setting. This positioning creates balanced market-implied odds around the 14°C and 24°C thresholds because minor variations in wind speed (northeast 3–4 m/s), humidity (60–75%), or cloud cover could shift the minimum by 2–3°C via altered heat retention, while the clustered 25% probabilities on 15–23°C outcomes reflect trader assessment of typical model spread in local temperature forecasts. No incoming cold fronts or tropical systems are expected in the next 48 hours to drive larger deviations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the Yellow Sea region through September 4, supporting overnight radiative cooling to lows near 20–21°C—close to early-September climatological norms of 19–22°C for Qingdao’s coastal setting. This positioning creates balanced market-implied odds around the 14°C and 24°C thresholds because minor variations in wind speed (northeast 3–4 m/s), humidity (60–75%), or cloud cover could shift the minimum by 2–3°C via altered heat retention, while the clustered 25% probabilities on 15–23°C outcomes reflect trader assessment of typical model spread in local temperature forecasts. No incoming cold fronts or tropical systems are expected in the next 48 hours to drive larger deviations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-term forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate stable high-pressure conditions over the Yellow Sea region through September 4, supporting overnight radiative cooling to lows near 20–21°C—close to early-September climatological norms of 19–22°C for Qingdao’s coastal setting. This positioning creates balanced market-implied odds around the 14°C and 24°C thresholds because minor variations in wind speed (northeast 3–4 m/s), humidity (60–75%), or cloud cover could shift the minimum by 2–3°C via altered heat retention, while the clustered 25% probabilities on 15–23°C outcomes reflect trader assessment of typical model spread in local temperature forecasts. No incoming cold fronts or tropical systems are expected in the next 48 hours to drive larger deviations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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