Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and major models indicate Tokyo's lowest temperature on September 11 will likely reach around 19°C overnight, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air behind recent frontal passages. This setup suppresses daytime heating while promoting radiational cooling under humid conditions, consistent with observed minima near 19–20°C in the prior week. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 19°C outcome at 43.5%, reflecting strong consensus in guidance, though residual model spread on exact rainfall timing and wind strength sustains secondary probabilities for 18°C or 20°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 11?
24°C or higher 47%
14°C or below 45%
19°C 44%
20°C 36%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
45%
15°C
2%
16°C
15%
17°C
9%
18°C
24%
19°C
44%
20°C
36%
21°C
18%
22°C
16%
23°C
15%
24°C or higher
47%
24°C or higher 47%
14°C or below 45%
19°C 44%
20°C 36%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
45%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
15%
17°C
$20 Vol.
9%
18°C
$0 Vol.
24%
19°C
$52 Vol.
44%
20°C
$0 Vol.
36%
21°C
$0 Vol.
18%
22°C
$0 Vol.
16%
23°C
$0 Vol.
15%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and major models indicate Tokyo's lowest temperature on September 11 will likely reach around 19°C overnight, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air behind recent frontal passages. This setup suppresses daytime heating while promoting radiational cooling under humid conditions, consistent with observed minima near 19–20°C in the prior week. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 19°C outcome at 43.5%, reflecting strong consensus in guidance, though residual model spread on exact rainfall timing and wind strength sustains secondary probabilities for 18°C or 20°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$72End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and major models indicate Tokyo's lowest temperature on September 11 will likely reach around 19°C overnight, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air behind recent frontal passages. This setup suppresses daytime heating while promoting radiational cooling under humid conditions, consistent with observed minima near 19–20°C in the prior week. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 19°C outcome at 43.5%, reflecting strong consensus in guidance, though residual model spread on exact rainfall timing and wind strength sustains secondary probabilities for 18°C or 20°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$72End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and major models indicate Tokyo's lowest temperature on September 11 will likely reach around 19°C overnight, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air behind recent frontal passages. This setup suppresses daytime heating while promoting radiational cooling under humid conditions, consistent with observed minima near 19–20°C in the prior week. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 19°C outcome at 43.5%, reflecting strong consensus in guidance, though residual model spread on exact rainfall timing and wind strength sustains secondary probabilities for 18°C or 20°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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