Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, show a strong consensus for a minimum air temperature of 12°C in Warsaw overnight on September 8 under clear skies and light southerly winds associated with a stable high-pressure system. Daytime highs reached 27–29°C with minimal cloud cover, allowing efficient radiational cooling after sunset as dew points remain in the mid-teens Celsius. This aligns with climatological expectations for early September in central Poland, where overnight lows typically range 10–14°C absent frontal systems. Market-implied odds near 99.5% for exactly 12°C reflect trader confidence in these stable conditions, though a modest increase in low-level moisture or unexpected wind shift could nudge the official station reading one degree either way before midnight local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 8?
12°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$5,853 Vol.
$5,853 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$5,853 Vol.
$5,853 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
8°C or below
$574 Vol.
No
9°C
$370 Vol.
No
10°C
$190 Vol.
No
11°C
$393 Vol.
No
12°C
$905 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$413 Vol.
No
14°C
$535 Vol.
No
15°C
$449 Vol.
No
16°C
$69 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,256 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$698 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, show a strong consensus for a minimum air temperature of 12°C in Warsaw overnight on September 8 under clear skies and light southerly winds associated with a stable high-pressure system. Daytime highs reached 27–29°C with minimal cloud cover, allowing efficient radiational cooling after sunset as dew points remain in the mid-teens Celsius. This aligns with climatological expectations for early September in central Poland, where overnight lows typically range 10–14°C absent frontal systems. Market-implied odds near 99.5% for exactly 12°C reflect trader confidence in these stable conditions, though a modest increase in low-level moisture or unexpected wind shift could nudge the official station reading one degree either way before midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,853End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, show a strong consensus for a minimum air temperature of 12°C in Warsaw overnight on September 8 under clear skies and light southerly winds associated with a stable high-pressure system. Daytime highs reached 27–29°C with minimal cloud cover, allowing efficient radiational cooling after sunset as dew points remain in the mid-teens Celsius. This aligns with climatological expectations for early September in central Poland, where overnight lows typically range 10–14°C absent frontal systems. Market-implied odds near 99.5% for exactly 12°C reflect trader confidence in these stable conditions, though a modest increase in low-level moisture or unexpected wind shift could nudge the official station reading one degree either way before midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,853End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, show a strong consensus for a minimum air temperature of 12°C in Warsaw overnight on September 8 under clear skies and light southerly winds associated with a stable high-pressure system. Daytime highs reached 27–29°C with minimal cloud cover, allowing efficient radiational cooling after sunset as dew points remain in the mid-teens Celsius. This aligns with climatological expectations for early September in central Poland, where overnight lows typically range 10–14°C absent frontal systems. Market-implied odds near 99.5% for exactly 12°C reflect trader confidence in these stable conditions, though a modest increase in low-level moisture or unexpected wind shift could nudge the official station reading one degree either way before midnight local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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