Traders see the lowest temperature in Wellington on September 20 as highly uncertain, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 6–9 °C. This reflects mixed signals from regional forecast models on overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and moderate southerly flow. Clearer skies would enhance longwave radiation loss from the surface, favoring a minimum near 6 °C, while increased low-level moisture or stronger winds would limit cooling and push readings toward 8–9 °C. Historical September minima in the capital average near 7 °C, but local topography and the urban heat island can shift the observed low by 1–2 °C depending on exact wind direction and timing of any frontal passage. Updated MetService guidance and real-time observations will likely resolve the narrow spread before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 20?
6°C 100%
7°C 51%
8°C 50%
9°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
5°C or below
4%
6°C
100%
7°C
51%
8°C
50%
9°C
50%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
6°C 100%
7°C 51%
8°C 50%
9°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
6°C
$0 Vol.
100%
7°C
$15 Vol.
51%
8°C
$0 Vol.
50%
9°C
$0 Vol.
50%
10°C
$194 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the lowest temperature in Wellington on September 20 as highly uncertain, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 6–9 °C. This reflects mixed signals from regional forecast models on overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and moderate southerly flow. Clearer skies would enhance longwave radiation loss from the surface, favoring a minimum near 6 °C, while increased low-level moisture or stronger winds would limit cooling and push readings toward 8–9 °C. Historical September minima in the capital average near 7 °C, but local topography and the urban heat island can shift the observed low by 1–2 °C depending on exact wind direction and timing of any frontal passage. Updated MetService guidance and real-time observations will likely resolve the narrow spread before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$385End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the lowest temperature in Wellington on September 20 as highly uncertain, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 6–9 °C. This reflects mixed signals from regional forecast models on overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and moderate southerly flow. Clearer skies would enhance longwave radiation loss from the surface, favoring a minimum near 6 °C, while increased low-level moisture or stronger winds would limit cooling and push readings toward 8–9 °C. Historical September minima in the capital average near 7 °C, but local topography and the urban heat island can shift the observed low by 1–2 °C depending on exact wind direction and timing of any frontal passage. Updated MetService guidance and real-time observations will likely resolve the narrow spread before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$385End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the lowest temperature in Wellington on September 20 as highly uncertain, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 6–9 °C. This reflects mixed signals from regional forecast models on overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and moderate southerly flow. Clearer skies would enhance longwave radiation loss from the surface, favoring a minimum near 6 °C, while increased low-level moisture or stronger winds would limit cooling and push readings toward 8–9 °C. Historical September minima in the capital average near 7 °C, but local topography and the urban heat island can shift the observed low by 1–2 °C depending on exact wind direction and timing of any frontal passage. Updated MetService guidance and real-time observations will likely resolve the narrow spread before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions