The upcoming October 27 elections and ensuing coalition negotiations are the primary drivers keeping probabilities tightly clustered around 43–50% for leading contenders including Yariv Levin, Aryeh Deri, Moshe Arbel, Ayelet Shaked, and Israel Katz. The Interior Ministry has remained without a permanent head since Moshe Arbel’s July 2025 resignation, with only temporary arrangements in place amid legal challenges. Portfolio allocation in the next government depends on final seat counts, party demands, and bargaining among Likud, Shas, and other potential partners, creating multiple plausible paths. Election outcomes, confirmation of coalition deals, or court-mandated timelines could quickly shift implied probabilities by clarifying which faction claims the role.