Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas since the first USDA-confirmed case on June 3, 2026, with 45 total animal infestations reported by early August across 16 counties in two states, have shaped trader views on a potential federal national emergency declaration. State-level disaster proclamations, such as Texas Governor Abbott’s June expansion covering all counties, and CDC’s Level 3 Emergency Operations Center activation on June 11 provide context, yet official statements from USDA APHIS and CDC emphasize very low current risk to animals and the public, supported by aggressive containment including sterile fly releases and movement restrictions. Historical eradication success via the sterile insect technique and ongoing FDA emergency use authorizations for preventive and treatment drugs underscore effective response capacity. Key upcoming factors include weekly case dashboards, port reopening evaluations, and model forecasts for northward spread from Mexico that could influence any escalation to a presidential or HHS national emergency threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedScrewworm National Emergency declared by...?
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
August 30
45%
October 31
45%
December 31
47%
$1,442 Vol.
August 30
$61 Vol.
45%
October 31
$0 Vol.
45%
December 31
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas since the first USDA-confirmed case on June 3, 2026, with 45 total animal infestations reported by early August across 16 counties in two states, have shaped trader views on a potential federal national emergency declaration. State-level disaster proclamations, such as Texas Governor Abbott’s June expansion covering all counties, and CDC’s Level 3 Emergency Operations Center activation on June 11 provide context, yet official statements from USDA APHIS and CDC emphasize very low current risk to animals and the public, supported by aggressive containment including sterile fly releases and movement restrictions. Historical eradication success via the sterile insect technique and ongoing FDA emergency use authorizations for preventive and treatment drugs underscore effective response capacity. Key upcoming factors include weekly case dashboards, port reopening evaluations, and model forecasts for northward spread from Mexico that could influence any escalation to a presidential or HHS national emergency threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas since the first USDA-confirmed case on June 3, 2026, with 45 total animal infestations reported by early August across 16 counties in two states, have shaped trader views on a potential federal national emergency declaration. State-level disaster proclamations, such as Texas Governor Abbott’s June expansion covering all counties, and CDC’s Level 3 Emergency Operations Center activation on June 11 provide context, yet official statements from USDA APHIS and CDC emphasize very low current risk to animals and the public, supported by aggressive containment including sterile fly releases and movement restrictions. Historical eradication success via the sterile insect technique and ongoing FDA emergency use authorizations for preventive and treatment drugs underscore effective response capacity. Key upcoming factors include weekly case dashboards, port reopening evaluations, and model forecasts for northward spread from Mexico that could influence any escalation to a presidential or HHS national emergency threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent detections of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Texas since the first USDA-confirmed case on June 3, 2026, with 45 total animal infestations reported by early August across 16 counties in two states, have shaped trader views on a potential federal national emergency declaration. State-level disaster proclamations, such as Texas Governor Abbott’s June expansion covering all counties, and CDC’s Level 3 Emergency Operations Center activation on June 11 provide context, yet official statements from USDA APHIS and CDC emphasize very low current risk to animals and the public, supported by aggressive containment including sterile fly releases and movement restrictions. Historical eradication success via the sterile insect technique and ongoing FDA emergency use authorizations for preventive and treatment drugs underscore effective response capacity. Key upcoming factors include weekly case dashboards, port reopening evaluations, and model forecasts for northward spread from Mexico that could influence any escalation to a presidential or HHS national emergency threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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