Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on Text Arena math benchmarks by end of August, reflected in the cluster of outcomes near 50% implied probability. OpenAI and Anthropic models currently lead overall leaderboards and specialized math evaluations such as MathArena, leaving a broad field of challengers—including xAI, DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen line, and others—vying for the next tier through incremental gains in reasoning chains, competition-problem accuracy, and efficient scaling. With only weeks remaining and no major model releases confirmed in the immediate pipeline, market sentiment hinges on minor benchmark updates, fine-tuning impacts, and any last-minute capability demonstrations rather than wholesale shifts in the competitive landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 33%
Anthropic 32%
Google 29%
Xiaomi 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
33%
Anthropic
32%
29%
Xiaomi
29%
SpaceXAI
28%
Alibaba
25%
MiniMax
24%
StepFun
23%
Bytedance
22%
Amazon
16%
Baidu
15%
Z.ai
15%
Moonshot
16%
Meta
15%
Nvidia
29%
DeepSeek
23%
Meituan
24%
Tencent
24%
Microsoft
14%
Mistral
1%
OpenAI 33%
Anthropic 32%
Google 29%
Xiaomi 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
$40 Vol.
33%
Anthropic
$40 Vol.
32%
$40 Vol.
29%
Xiaomi
$40 Vol.
29%
SpaceXAI
$40 Vol.
28%
Alibaba
$40 Vol.
25%
MiniMax
$40 Vol.
24%
StepFun
$40 Vol.
23%
Bytedance
$99 Vol.
22%
Amazon
$40 Vol.
16%
Baidu
$40 Vol.
15%
Z.ai
$40 Vol.
15%
Moonshot
$40 Vol.
16%
Meta
$40 Vol.
15%
Nvidia
$40 Vol.
29%
DeepSeek
$40 Vol.
23%
Meituan
$40 Vol.
24%
Tencent
$40 Vol.
24%
Microsoft
$40 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$143 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on Text Arena math benchmarks by end of August, reflected in the cluster of outcomes near 50% implied probability. OpenAI and Anthropic models currently lead overall leaderboards and specialized math evaluations such as MathArena, leaving a broad field of challengers—including xAI, DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen line, and others—vying for the next tier through incremental gains in reasoning chains, competition-problem accuracy, and efficient scaling. With only weeks remaining and no major model releases confirmed in the immediate pipeline, market sentiment hinges on minor benchmark updates, fine-tuning impacts, and any last-minute capability demonstrations rather than wholesale shifts in the competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Volume
$962End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on Text Arena math benchmarks by end of August, reflected in the cluster of outcomes near 50% implied probability. OpenAI and Anthropic models currently lead overall leaderboards and specialized math evaluations such as MathArena, leaving a broad field of challengers—including xAI, DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen line, and others—vying for the next tier through incremental gains in reasoning chains, competition-problem accuracy, and efficient scaling. With only weeks remaining and no major model releases confirmed in the immediate pipeline, market sentiment hinges on minor benchmark updates, fine-tuning impacts, and any last-minute capability demonstrations rather than wholesale shifts in the competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$962End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested race for third place on Text Arena math benchmarks by end of August, reflected in the cluster of outcomes near 50% implied probability. OpenAI and Anthropic models currently lead overall leaderboards and specialized math evaluations such as MathArena, leaving a broad field of challengers—including xAI, DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba’s Qwen line, and others—vying for the next tier through incremental gains in reasoning chains, competition-problem accuracy, and efficient scaling. With only weeks remaining and no major model releases confirmed in the immediate pipeline, market sentiment hinges on minor benchmark updates, fine-tuning impacts, and any last-minute capability demonstrations rather than wholesale shifts in the competitive landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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