**Traders assign an 85% probability that Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) will not leave office before the end of his current term.** Kean returned to Congress in late June 2026 after a roughly four-month medical absence tied to depression treatment, during which he missed over 140 roll-call votes. He addressed the matter directly on the House floor, confirmed he was “healthier, stronger,” and has since resumed a full schedule while running for reelection in New Jersey’s competitive 7th District. In a late-September debate he defended his transparency with constituents and outlined positions on district issues, showing active engagement in the campaign against Democrat Rebecca Bennett. No statements, filings, or credible reports indicate plans to resign, retire early, or step aside before the term concludes. With the 2026 midterms underway and Kean positioned as the GOP nominee, the consensus reflects the absence of any structural or personal developments that would prompt an early departure.