The US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13, 2026, after US-Iran peace talks collapsed, with President Trump stating it would remain in place until a deal is reached. The measure, enforced by US Navy and CENTCOM assets, has restricted vessel access to and from Iranian facilities amid an ongoing conflict and fragile ceasefire. As of early June, ship traffic through the strait remains far below pre-conflict levels despite some limited transits, while Iran has reasserted control over passages and both sides have exchanged fire in the area. Trader sentiment centers on the timeline for any US-Iran agreement or unilateral US policy shift that would prompt Trump to announce an end to the blockade, with key variables including diplomatic progress, enforcement outcomes, and regional escalations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUKMTO reports critical threat level amid military activity in Strait of Hormuz
June 30 drops to 35%7%
The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a critical threat level due to ongoing military activity, indicating sustained high tension and no immediate de-escalation. This report supported market expectations that the US blockade would not be lifted by the end of May or early June.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing blockade
July 31 plunges to 35%29%
The US returned the seized Iranian cargo ship Touska, suggesting a tactical shift but maintaining the blockade enforcement. This mixed signal led to moderate market impact, with continued expectations that Trump would not announce lifting the blockade imminently.
UKMTO reports critical threat level amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz military activity
June 30 drops to 40%12%
The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a critical threat level due to sustained military activity and high tensions, indicating no immediate de-escalation or blockade lift, which supported a decline in market prices for a blockade lift announcement.
US Navy strikes Iranian ship in Gulf of Oman amid Hormuz blockade tensions
June 30 plunges to 40%20%
The US Navy's strike on an Iranian vessel reinforced the blockade enforcement and heightened tensions, leading to a significant decrease in market expectations for a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade
June 15 drops to 43%14%
The US returned the Iranian cargo ship Touska seized during blockade enforcement, indicating a tactical shift but maintaining the blockade. This mixed signal caused moderate market impact, with continued low confidence in a blockade lift announcement by end of May or early June.
Strait of Hormuz threat level remains critical amid military activity: UKMTO
June 30 drops to 36%9%
The UKMTO's report of a critical threat level due to increased military activity and security measures indicates sustained high tension and blockade enforcement, supporting market expectations that no blockade lift announcement will occur by May 31.
Iran reimposes closure of Strait of Hormuz after US refuses to lift blockade
June 7 drops to 1%7%
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed again under strict control of its armed forces after the US refused to lift its blockade. This action maintained high tensions and reduced market confidence in a blockade lift announcement by early June.
Trump reaffirms blockade continuation in Axios interview
Trump reiterated his commitment to maintaining the naval blockade until Iran accepts nuclear demands, further solidifying the expectation that the blockade would not be lifted.
Iran says Strait of Hormuz ‘closed again’ until US blockade lifted
June 30 drops to 55%5%
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again, citing the continued US blockade of Iranian ports. This statement reinforced the blockade's persistence and reduced market expectations for an imminent US announcement lifting the blockade.
US Navy strikes Iranian ship in Gulf of Oman amid blockade tensions
June 30 surges to 48%23%
The US Navy’s strike on an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman signaled continued strict enforcement of the blockade, increasing tensions and reducing the likelihood of a blockade lift announcement by Trump before May 31.
UKMTO reports critical threat level in Strait of Hormuz amid military activity
June 7 dips to 7%4%
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported a critical threat level due to ongoing military activity in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating sustained high tensions and no immediate de-escalation. This report supported market expectations that the US blockade would not be lifted by May 31, depressing prices for earlier resolution dates.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade
July 31 jumps to 75%9%
The US returned the Iranian cargo ship Touska, indicating a tactical shift but maintaining the blockade. This mixed signal caused moderate market impact, with continued enforcement suggesting no imminent blockade lift announcement.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade
June 30 jumps to 60%5%
The US returned the Iranian cargo ship Touska, indicating a tactical shift but maintaining the blockade. This mixed signal caused moderate market impact, reflecting ongoing enforcement but some de-escalation signs, keeping blockade lift unlikely in the near term.
US pauses operation guiding vessels through Strait amid talks
June 15 plunges to 26%33%
President Trump announced a temporary halt to the US operation guiding vessels through the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing diplomatic talks, signaling delays in lifting the blockade. This pause led to decreased market confidence in a blockade lift by mid-May and end of May.
UKMTO reports critical threat level amid military activity in Strait of Hormuz
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported a critical threat level due to ongoing military activity in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating sustained high tension and no immediate de-escalation. This supported market views that the US blockade would not be lifted soon, affecting prices negatively for near-term lift outcomes.
Trump reiterates blockade end only after full US‑Iran deal
Trump’s Truth Social post reiterating that the blockade would end only after a complete US‑Iran agreement was taken as a signal that a lift by early June was off the table, keeping the June 7 price near 13 % and the July 31 price stable.
Trump says Strait open for all; blockade stays only until deal
Trump posted on Truth Social that the Strait was now fully open to all except Iran and that the naval blockade would stay only until a final agreement was reached. The statement gave a modest boost to the July 31 option (price 71 % → 71 %) but left early‑June lift probabilities unchanged.
UKMTO reports critical threat level in Strait of Hormuz amid military activity
June 30 dips to 52%4%
The UK Maritime Trade Operations' report of a critical threat level due to ongoing military activity indicates sustained high tensions and blockade enforcement, supporting market expectations that no blockade lift announcement will occur by May 31.
Trump pauses US operation guiding vessels through Strait of Hormuz amid talks
June 30 dips to 55%4%
President Trump announced a temporary halt to the US operation guiding vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a delay in normalization and reducing market confidence in a blockade lift by mid-May or end of May, but leaving room for later resolution.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade
July 31 drops to 57%9%
The US returned the seized Iranian cargo ship Touska, suggesting a tactical shift but maintaining the blockade enforcement. This mixed signal contributed to a moderate market impact, with continued skepticism about a blockade lift announcement.
UKMTO reports critical threat level in Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing military activity
May 31 plunges to 1%34%
The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported sustained high threat levels and military activity in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating no immediate de-escalation and supporting market expectations that the US blockade would not be lifted by May 31.
US Navy strikes Iranian ship in Gulf of Oman amid Hormuz blockade tensions
June 15 plunges to 27%15%
The US Navy's strike on an Iranian vessel signals continued strict enforcement of the blockade, increasing tensions and lowering the likelihood of a blockade lift announcement by early June. This event contributed to a decrease in market prices for earlier resolution dates.
Iran warns of transit difficulties in Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade tensions
Iranian Army spokesman warned that countries supporting US sanctions might face transit difficulties through the Strait, signaling ongoing tensions and supporting market expectations that the US blockade would not be lifted by May 31.
Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz
President Trump publicly declared a full naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, signaling the blockade would remain until Tehran agrees to a US deal. This announcement marked the start of the blockade and initially drove market prices up for the July 31 and June 30 options.
Strait of Hormuz threat level remains critical amid military activity: UKMTO
June 30 plunges to 35%29%
The UKMTO reported a critical threat level in the Strait of Hormuz due to ongoing military activity and enhanced security measures, indicating sustained high tension and no immediate de-escalation, which supported NO outcomes for a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz
June 30 rises to 87%1%
President Donald Trump declared a full naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, marking the start of the blockade and driving initial market pricing toward a 'Yes' outcome.
Britain hosts virtual meeting of 40+ countries to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
June 30 plunges to 44%28%
The UK convened a virtual meeting of over 40 countries to increase diplomatic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While this showed international concern, it did not involve direct US action or lifting of the blockade, contributing to market uncertainty and a price drop.
Trump Rejects Iranian Proposal to Open Strait of Hormuz in Exchange for Blockade Lift
June 30 plunges to 44%36%
In an Axios interview, Trump stated he would continue the naval blockade until Iran accepts nuclear demands, rejecting Iran's offer to reopen the strait in exchange for lifting the blockade.
Trump reaffirms blockade continuation in Axios interview rejecting Iran's proposal
June 30 surges to 67%23%
In an Axios interview, President Trump stated he would continue the naval blockade until Iran accepts nuclear demands, rejecting Iran's offer to reopen the strait in exchange for lifting the blockade. This reinforced market expectations that the blockade would not be lifted soon, causing price volatility.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade
June 30 plunges to 35%29%
The US returned the Iranian cargo ship Touska, seized earlier during blockade enforcement, indicating a tactical shift but not a lifting of the blockade. The blockade remained in place, and market prices reflected continued skepticism about a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
President Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz
July 31 surges to 66%63%
President Trump publicly declared a full naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a deal to end the conflict. This announcement marked the start of the blockade and caused a sharp market surge toward a 'Yes' outcome for the blockade lift announcement by later dates.
Trump reaffirms continuation of US naval blockade in Axios interview
June 30 surges to 67%23%
In an Axios interview, President Trump stated he would continue the naval blockade until Iran accepts US nuclear demands, rejecting Iran's offer to reopen the strait in exchange for lifting the blockade. This reinforced market expectations that the blockade would not be lifted soon.
Trump officially announces lifting of US naval blockade in Strait of Hormuz
July 31 jumps to 72%6%
President Trump publicly announced the lifting of the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing ships trapped by the blockade to begin moving. This official statement confirmed the blockade's end and strongly influenced market prices toward a 'Yes' outcome for blockade lift by July 31.
Strait of Hormuz threat level remains critical amid military activity: UKMTO
June 30 drops to 35%5%
The UKMTO's report of a critical threat level due to ongoing military activity indicates sustained high tensions and blockade enforcement, supporting market views that a blockade lift announcement by May 31 is unlikely.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing blockade
June 30 rises to 36%1%
The US returned the seized Iranian cargo ship Touska, suggesting a tactical shift but maintaining the blockade enforcement. This mixed signal caused moderate market impact but did not increase expectations for a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
U.S. returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing blockade
May 31 plunges to 4%56%
The U.S. returned the Iranian cargo ship Touska, seized earlier during blockade enforcement, signaling a tactical shift but maintaining the blockade. This mixed signal caused market fluctuations but did not indicate an official lifting announcement, keeping the probability of a blockade lift low by May 31.
Strait of Hormuz remains blocked amid US-Iran naval skirmishes
May 31 dips to 40%2%
Ongoing naval skirmishes between US and Iranian forces maintained the blockade status, with no official announcement of lifting. This sustained tension further decreased market expectations for a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Trump announces US will lift blockade of Strait of Hormuz
June 30 jumps to 67%11%
President Trump announced that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted following a proposed agreement with Iran, signaling a major shift and causing a surge in market prices for blockade lift by June 30 and July 31.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard fires on ships attempting passage through Strait of Hormuz
June 7 plunges to 8%45%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions amid the US blockade. This military action increased uncertainty and risk, negatively impacting market confidence in a blockade lift announcement by early June.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing blockade
June 30 rises to 66%3%
The US returned the Iranian cargo ship Touska, indicating a tactical shift but maintaining the blockade. This mixed signal caused moderate market fluctuations, with some optimism but overall skepticism about a near-term blockade lift announcement.
Trump announces US will end naval blockade as part of deal with Iran
June 30 jumps to 73%6%
President Trump publicly announced that the US would lift the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as part of a deal with Iran, signaling a formal end to the blockade and fulfilling the market's criteria for a 'Yes' resolution by June 30.
US Navy strikes Iranian ship in Gulf of Oman amid Hormuz blockade tensions
June 30 surges to 48%23%
The US Navy’s strike on an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman highlighted ongoing blockade enforcement and heightened tensions, decreasing the likelihood of President Trump announcing a blockade lift by May 31 and supporting NO outcomes in related markets.
Trump Announces End of Strait of Hormuz Blockade
June 15 surges to 80%33%
President Donald Trump officially announced the end of the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Truth Social, demanding that Iran permanently abandon nuclear weapons. This triggered a massive surge in the June 15 and June 30 markets.
Trump rejects Iranian proposal to open Strait of Hormuz in exchange for blockade lift
June 30 surges to 67%32%
In an Axios interview, President Trump stated he would continue the naval blockade until Iran accepts nuclear demands, rejecting Iran's offer to reopen the strait in exchange for lifting the blockade. This reinforced market expectations that the blockade would not be lifted soon, causing a surge in the June 30 option price.
Trump Rejects Iranian Proposal to Lift Blockade in Axios Interview
June 15 plunges to 53%36%
President Trump explicitly stated in an Axios interview that the U.S. naval blockade would continue until Iran met nuclear demands, rejecting an Iranian offer to open the Strait in exchange for lifting the blockade. This firm stance caused a sharp drop in early-resolution expectations.
Iranian Supertanker HUGE Evades U.S. Naval Blockade to Deliver Crude to Indonesia
June 7 surges to 72%37%
An Iranian supertanker successfully bypassed the U.S. naval blockade, highlighting enforcement challenges and reducing expectations of an imminent negotiated lift.
President Trump announces US naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz will be lifted
On May 29, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted as part of a potential agreement with Iran. He stated that ships stranded due to the blockade could begin heading home, signaling a major shift toward ending the blockade and reopening the strait, though final ratification was still pending.
President Trump announces US will end naval blockade, first step toward deal
June 30 jumps to 87%14%
President Trump announced plans to lift the US blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as part of a deal requiring Iran to remove mines within 30 days, signaling a potential resolution and causing market optimism for a blockade lift by June 30.
Iran supertanker evades US blockade, impacting Strait of Hormuz market outlook
June 30 drops to 28%12%
Iran's supertanker successfully evaded the US naval blockade, demonstrating enforcement challenges and decreasing market confidence in a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Iran’s supertanker evades US blockade, transporting crude oil to Indonesia
June 30 drops to 28%12%
Iran’s supertanker HUGE successfully bypassed the US naval blockade by going dark on AIS and delivering nearly two million barrels of crude oil to Indonesia, demonstrating enforcement challenges and reducing market confidence in a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
US Navy strikes Iranian ship amid Hormuz blockade tensions
June 15 plunges to 30%15%
A US Navy strike on an Iranian‑flagged vessel in the Gulf of Oman signaled a hardening of enforcement. The event caused the “Yes” price for the June 15 outcome to fall back to 30 % and reinforced the belief that a lift before late June was unlikely.
Trump Affirms Firm Stance Against Concessions to Iran
June 30 rises to 69%1%
Donald Trump publicly affirmed his position against making concessions to Iran, reinforcing that the active naval blockade would continue to redirect vessels.
Iran bypasses US blockade via Caspian Sea and rail to China
June 30 plunges to 46%16%
Iran’s use of alternative routes through the Caspian Sea and rail to China reduces reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, decreasing the likelihood of a blockade lift announcement by May 31. This strategic adaptation signals ongoing tensions and challenges to US blockade effectiveness.
Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
June 30 drops to 51%11%
Iran's use of alternative routes through the Caspian Sea and rail to China reduces reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, decreasing market expectations for a blockade lift announcement and normal shipping traffic through the Strait by May 31.
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 28
May 28 plunges to 3%19%
The market price dropped to 3% on May 28, indicating a significant shift in trader expectations, though no qualifying announcement of the blockade's lifting was found in the available information.
Iran warns of transit difficulties amid US blockade tensions
May 31 plunges to 16%24%
Iranian Army spokesman warned that countries supporting US sanctions might face transit difficulties through the Strait, signaling ongoing tensions and decreasing likelihood of a US blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Iranian supertanker evades US blockade, challenging enforcement
May 31 drops to 28%12%
Iran's supertanker successfully evaded the US naval blockade, demonstrating enforcement challenges and reducing market confidence in a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Iran state TV reports draft US-Iran deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz and end blockade
June 30 jumps to 67%11%
Iranian state media reported a draft agreement under which Iran would restore commercial shipping through the Strait to pre-war levels within a month, and the US would lift its naval blockade, raising market hopes for a blockade lift announcement by June 30.
US military strikes Iranian drone operation amid ongoing blockade
The US military conducted strikes targeting Iranian drone operations threatening US forces and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining pressure and blockade enforcement. This military action supported market expectations that the blockade would not be lifted imminently.
Trump pauses US operation guiding vessels through Strait of Hormuz amid talks
May 31 plunges to 25%27%
President Trump announced a temporary halt to the US operation guiding vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a delay in normalization and reducing the likelihood of a blockade lift announcement by the end of May. This pause reflected ongoing diplomatic talks but maintained the blockade status.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade
June 30 dips to 60%1%
The US returned the seized Iranian cargo ship Touska, suggesting a tactical shift but maintaining the blockade enforcement. This mixed signal contributed to a moderate market impact, with expectations for a blockade lift announcement remaining low.
Trump states US blockade remains until Iran deal is fully signed
May 31 drops to 17%13%
President Trump publicly stated on Truth Social that the US naval blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz remains in full force until a complete agreement with Iran is reached and signed, reinforcing market expectations that no blockade lift announcement would occur by May 31.
Iranian supertanker evades US blockade, challenging enforcement
June 30 drops to 28%12%
An Iranian supertanker successfully evaded the US naval blockade, demonstrating enforcement challenges and reducing market confidence in a near-term blockade lift announcement.
President Trump states US blockade remains until Iran deal is finalized
June 15 drops to 36%7%
President Trump publicly declared on Truth Social that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would remain in full force until a comprehensive agreement with Iran is reached and certified. This statement dampened hopes for a near-term resolution and maintained pressure on Iran amid ongoing negotiations.
Iran supertanker evades US blockade, impacting market outlook
June 30 drops to 28%12%
Iran's supertanker successfully evading the US blockade highlights enforcement challenges and decreases market expectations for a blockade lift announcement by May 31, reflected in a significant drop in YES pricing.
US Centcom redirects 70 vessels amid Hormuz blockade enforcement
May 31 rises to 25%3%
US Central Command reported redirecting numerous vessels as part of blockade enforcement, signaling continued military control and lowering expectations for a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
US Weighs Seizing Iranian Vessels as Ceasefire Nears Expiration
The White House prepared for a resumption of military operations and considered actively pursuing Iranian-flagged vessels, keeping the June 15 contract at 59%.
Trump says no rush on Iran deal, US blockade remains in full force
President Trump stated on Truth Social that the US blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz remains in full force until a deal is reached and signed, signaling no imminent lifting of the blockade and causing market prices for a blockade lift by June 7 and June 15 to drop.
UKMTO reports critical threat level amid ongoing military activity in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 35%29%
The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a critical threat level due to continued military activity, indicating sustained tensions and no immediate de-escalation, which lowered market confidence in a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
US Navy attacks and seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 56%26%
The US Navy attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, marking the first interception since the blockade began. This military action heightened tensions.
Trump threatens intensified bombing if Iran rejects ceasefire, hints at blockade lift
June 15 rises to 12%2%
President Trump posted on social media that the blockade would end and the Strait of Hormuz would reopen if Iran agreed to ceasefire terms; otherwise, bombing would intensify. This conditional statement briefly increased market optimism for a blockade lift announcement by mid-June.
US and Iran agree in principle to reopen Strait of Hormuz, deal pending
Reports indicated that the US and Iran had agreed in principle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and work toward a final agreement, raising market hopes for a blockade lift, though no official US announcement was made by the deadline.
UK hosts virtual meeting of 40+ countries pressing Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Britain convened a virtual meeting of over 40 countries to increase diplomatic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While this showed international concern, it did not involve the US lifting its blockade, leading to a moderate market impact with no immediate change in blockade status.
Trump says Hormuz blockade will remain until peace deal signed
June 30 surges to 90%17%
Trump posted on Truth Social that a “peace deal is close but the blockade will stay until a formal agreement is signed,” providing a clear public statement that the blockade would not be lifted by the end of May. This pushed the June 30 probability to a record high of 90 % and cemented the market’s view that a lift announcement was unlikely before June 15.
Trump signals potential end to blockade if Iran agrees to ceasefire terms
June 30 surges to 84%38%
President Trump posted on social media that the blockade would end and the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all if Iran agrees to the ceasefire conditions. This statement briefly increased market optimism for a blockade lift by June 30, though no official lifting announcement was made by May 31.
Iran supertanker evades US blockade, challenging enforcement
May 31 drops to 28%12%
An Iranian supertanker successfully evaded the US naval blockade, undermining enforcement efforts and reducing market expectations for a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Iranian officials say proposed peace deal would open Strait of Hormuz and US would lift blockade
June 30 surges to 73%39%
Iranian officials stated that as part of a tentative agreement, Iran would allow ships to pass through the Strait without tolls and the US would lift its naval blockade, raising market hopes for a blockade lift announcement though no official US announcement followed immediately.
Strait of Hormuz traffic by May 15 priced at 1.8% YES, down from 4% 24 hours ago
May 31 surges to 59%19%
Market pricing indicates that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to normalize by mid-May, consistent with continued naval blockades and ongoing disruptions.
UK hosts virtual meeting of 40+ countries to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 44%19%
Britain convened a virtual meeting of over 40 countries to increase diplomatic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While this showed international concern, it did not involve the US lifting its blockade, and market prices reflected continued uncertainty.
Trump posts on Truth Social that blockade would stay in full force
May 31 dips to 84%4%
Trump reiterated on Truth Social that the blockade would stay 'in full force' and he would not send envoys to Pakistan, reinforcing the expectation that the blockade would continue.
Only eight vessels transit Hormuz on first full day of US blockade
June 30 drops to 45%7%
CENTCOM reported that only eight vessels had transited the strait on the first full day of enforcement, highlighting the blockade’s severity. Traders interpreted the data as further evidence that a lift before late June was improbable, nudging the June 30 price down to 45 %.
US Navy Seizes Iranian-Flagged Cargo Ship Near Strait of Hormuz
The US Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and signaling the blockade's enforcement.
Britain hosts virtual meeting of 40+ countries to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
The UK convened a virtual meeting of over 40 countries to increase diplomatic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling international concern but no direct US action to lift the blockade, which maintained market uncertainty.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
The US Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, escalating tensions and signaling the blockade's enforcement.
US Central Command reports redirecting 70 vessels amid Hormuz blockade enforcement
June 30 drops to 67%5%
CENTCOM's report of redirecting 70 vessels and disabling four since the blockade began underscores continued enforcement of the US naval blockade, signaling no imminent lifting of the blockade. This reinforced market expectations for a NO outcome on a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Iran declares Strait of Hormuz closed again until US lifts blockade
May 28 plunges to 0%22%
Iran's military announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed again due to the US refusal to lift its blockade of Iranian ports. This hardened stance decreased market confidence in a blockade lift announcement, reflected in price drops for near-term outcomes.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declares Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 31 plunges to 25%35%
Iran escalated tensions by declaring the Strait of Hormuz fully closed again and firing on ships attempting to pass, in retaliation to the US blockade. This heightened global energy concerns and reduced market expectations for the blockade being lifted soon, causing a price drop.
Trump signals potential end to blockade if Iran agrees to ceasefire terms
July 31 rises to 70%4%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that the blockade would end if Iran agrees to ceasefire conditions, suggesting a possible lifting of the blockade contingent on negotiations. This caused some market optimism for a lift announcement by late June or July.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declares Strait of Hormuz fully closed amid US blockade
June 30 plunges to 34%39%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fired on ships attempting to pass, in retaliation to the US blockade. This escalation heightened tensions and diminished prospects for the blockade being lifted soon, negatively impacting market prices for June 30 and later dates.
Trump's two-day summit with China's Xi Jinping ends without lifting blockade announcement
Trump's summit with China's Xi Jinping secured Beijing's backing for reopening the Strait of Hormuz but produced no explicit announcement lifting the US naval blockade.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and diminishing prospects for the blockade being lifted, causing a sharp market price drop.
Trump announces US military blockade of Iranian ports
President Trump declared a US military blockade of all Iranian ports, stating the blockade would remain until Tehran agrees to a US deal. This announcement set the baseline for the market and increased uncertainty about the blockade's duration.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
June 30 plunges to 34%50%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and reducing prospects for a blockade lift.
President Trump signals potential blockade lift if Iran agrees to ceasefire terms
President Trump posted on social media that the blockade would end and the Strait of Hormuz would be open if Iran agrees to the ceasefire conditions. This tentative signal briefly raised market hopes for a blockade lift, though no official announcement followed by the deadline.
Iranian supertanker evades US blockade, undermining enforcement
June 30 drops to 28%12%
An Iranian supertanker successfully bypassed the US naval blockade by going dark on tracking systems and delivering oil to Indonesia. This event highlighted enforcement challenges and contributed to market skepticism about a near-term blockade lift announcement.
Iran’s top diplomat leaves Pakistan; Trump halts envoy travel for talks
Iran's diplomat departure and Trump's directive to halt envoy travel signaled stalled negotiations, reducing market optimism about a near-term lifting of the blockade and increasing uncertainty.
Trump Posts on Truth Social That Blockade Would Stay 'In Full Force'
Trump posted on his Truth Social account stating the blockade would remain 'in full force' and that he would not send envoys to Pakistan, reinforcing the expectation that the blockade would continue and lowering market confidence in an imminent lifting.
Trump posts on Truth Social that blockade remains in full force
Trump posted on his Truth Social account stating the blockade would stay 'in full force' and he would not send envoys to Pakistan, signaling stalled diplomacy and maintaining blockade enforcement.
US stocks rise to records after solid jobs report
A strong jobs report boosted US stocks, providing economic relief amid ongoing war and blockade, but did not affect the market resolution.
Trump says US blockade will stay until deal is 100 % complete
June 7 plunges to 13%40%
Trump’s declaration that the blockade was 100 % effective and would not be lifted until a “100 % complete” deal pushed the market further away from the early‑June lift options, sending the “Yes” price for June 7 down to 13 % and keeping the July 31 price near 71 %.
Trump Threatens Intensified Bombing if Iran Rejects Ceasefire Conditions
June 30 surges to 81%25%
President Trump warned that the U.S. would resume and intensify bombing if Iran did not agree to ceasefire conditions, keeping the blockade in place.
Trump Asserts Total US Control Over Strait of Hormuz and Rejects Early Lift
June 30 drops to 53%7%
President Trump asserted that the US blockade has been 100% effective and reiterated that the blockade would continue until Iran accepts nuclear demands, dampening hopes for an early lift by June 30.
Iran's envoy urges UN to condemn US blockade and attacks on Iranian oil tankers
Iran's envoy called on the UN to condemn US actions in the Persian Gulf, highlighting international legal concerns about the blockade.
Trump asserts US control over Strait of Hormuz, confirms blockade effectiveness
President Trump publicly asserted that the US has total control over the Strait of Hormuz and that the blockade has been 100-percent effective, emphasizing no lifting of the blockade and maintaining pressure on Iran, which kept market confidence in a blockade continuation.
Trump Threatens Intensified Bombing of Iran if Ceasefire Conditions Are Rejected
June 30 jumps to 60%14%
President Trump warned on Truth Social that the U.S. would resume and intensify bombing campaigns if Iran fails to agree to ceasefire terms, keeping the blockade active in the interim.
Iran supertanker evades US blockade, impacting Strait of Hormuz market outlook
June 30 drops to 28%12%
Iran’s supertanker successfully bypassed the US naval blockade, demonstrating enforcement challenges and decreasing market expectations for a blockade lift announcement by May 31, reflecting ongoing geopolitical friction.
US Navy strikes Iranian vessel in Gulf of Oman amid blockade
June 30 surges to 78%23%
U.S. Navy vessels engaged and struck an Iranian‑flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman, underscoring a renewed enforcement posture. The aggressive action caused a short‑term bounce in the June 30 probability (up to 78 %) before the market settled back.
Iran warns of transit difficulties in Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade tensions
June 30 drops to 45%6%
Iranian Army spokesman warned that countries supporting US sanctions might face transit difficulties through the Strait, indicating ongoing tensions and supporting market expectations that the blockade would not be lifted by May 31.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing blockade
June 30 drops to 57%7%
The US returned the Iranian cargo ship Touska, signaling a tactical shift but maintained the blockade enforcement. This mixed signal caused moderate market uncertainty but overall decreased the likelihood of a blockade lift announcement soon.
US Navy strikes Iranian ship in Gulf of Oman amid Hormuz blockade tensions
June 30 drops to 58%7%
The US Navy's strike on an Iranian vessel demonstrates continued enforcement of the blockade and heightened tensions, reducing market confidence in a blockade lift announcement by May 31 and supporting NO outcomes across related markets.
Trump Pauses Project Freedom Operation Citing Progress in Iran Negotiations
June 30 jumps to 56%14%
President Trump paused the U.S. military's Project Freedom operation to open the Strait of Hormuz, citing great progress toward a final agreement with Iran.
Trump Pauses Project Freedom Citing Great Progress in Iran Negotiations
June 30 rises to 46%4%
President Trump paused the U.S. military's 'Project Freedom' operation to open the Strait of Hormuz, citing significant progress toward a final agreement with Iranian representatives.
Strait of Hormuz threat level remains critical amid military activity: UKMTO
May 31 dips to 35%4%
The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a critical threat level due to ongoing military activity, indicating sustained blockade enforcement and reducing market optimism for a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships attempting passage
June 30 rises to 87%4%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and fired on ships trying to pass, directly counteracting the US blockade and sharply lowering market confidence that the waterway would reopen soon.
Polymarket analytics registers minor rise in Yes odds after Trump post
June 15 drops to 36%8%
Polymarket analytics noted a small uptick in “Yes” odds after a vague Trump‑related post on Truth Social hinted at possible diplomatic progress, briefly raising the June‑15 odds before the market resumed its downward trend.
Iran signals continued Strait of Hormuz restrictions amid US blockade
June 30 drops to 52%7%
Iran announced it would maintain restrictions on vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as long as the US blockade remains, emphasizing that reopening the strait depends on US policy changes. This hardened stance contributed to market declines in the probability of a blockade lift announcement.
Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea and rail to China
June 30 plunges to 52%17%
Iran's strategic use of alternative routes such as the Caspian Sea and rail corridors to China reduces reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, decreasing the likelihood of a US announcement lifting the blockade soon. This development caused market prices for blockade lift announcements by May 31 to fall significantly.
Iran threatens to halt regional trade if U.S. blockade continues
Iran’s joint military command warned that continued U.S. naval actions would force Tehran to stop all regional trade, signaling no imminent concession on the Hormuz blockade.
Iranian army warns of transit difficulties amid US blockade
June 15 plunges to 34%21%
An Iranian army spokesman warned that nations supporting U.S. sanctions could face transit difficulties, suggesting the blockade would stay in force. The warning contributed to a sharp drop in the June 15 probability, falling to the high‑30 % range.
Iran warns of transit difficulties in Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade tensions
June 30 plunges to 40%29%
Iranian military warnings about transit difficulties through the Strait amid US sanctions and blockade enforcement reinforced market expectations that the blockade would remain in place, reducing the likelihood of a lifting announcement by May 31.
Iran announces willingness to reopen Hormuz if blockade lifted
May 22 drops to 4%10%
Iran’s public statement that it would consider reopening the strait once the U.S. blockade ends sparked a rapid decline in market confidence that the blockade would be lifted by the near‑term dates.
Brent crude falls to $101, market hopes for Hormuz reopening wane
A modest price drop in oil did not translate into optimism about the blockade, as traders still expected the U.S. to keep pressure, leading to the lowest Yes price for all outcomes.
U.S. Navy continues blockade, no ships allowed through
Continued enforcement without any indication of a lift reinforced bearish sentiment, keeping prices low.
Iran routes oil through Caspian Sea and rail to China, sidestepping Hormuz blockade
June 7 drops to 16%6%
Reporting that Iran was bypassing the U.S. blockade via the Caspian Sea and rail to China suggested a longer‑term erosion of the blockade’s impact, further lowering expectations for a quick lift announcement and nudging the June‑7 odds lower.
Trump asserts US control; blockade remains fully effective
June 30 plunges to 44%15%
Trump reaffirmed total U.S. control of the Strait and that the blockade remained 100 % effective. This reinforced the view that a lift before the end of June was unlikely, driving the “Yes” price for the June 30 outcome down to 44 % and for the July 31 outcome to a modest 43 % by early June.
Iran declares Strait of Hormuz closed again citing US blockade
June 30 drops to 51%10%
Iranian military announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed again due to the US refusal to lift its blockade of Iranian ports, reversing earlier brief reopening. This reinforced market expectations that the US blockade would not be lifted soon, causing a price drop.
UK gathers 40 countries to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 8%13%
Britain convened a virtual summit of 40+ nations urging Iran to reopen the strait. Although the U.S. did not attend, the diplomatic pressure raised expectations of a negotiated lift, briefly lifting market odds.
Iran reimposes closure of Strait of Hormuz after US refuses to lift port blockade
May 31 plunges to 5%19%
Iran declared the Strait closed again citing the US refusal to lift its blockade, reinforcing the continuation of the blockade and reducing market expectations for a lift announcement.
Iran warns of transit difficulties amid US blockade tensions
June 30 drops to 47%6%
Iranian military warnings about transit difficulties through the Strait of Hormuz amid US sanctions and blockade enforcement suggest escalating tensions and support market expectations that the blockade will not be lifted soon, lowering the probability of a US announcement lifting it by May 31.
Trump reiterates blockade will stay until Iran agrees to deal
May 31 dips to 20%3%
Trump’s reaffirmation that the blockade remains tied to a diplomatic deal reinforced traders’ belief that a lift was unlikely before the end of May, pushing Yes prices down further.
Iran’s supertanker evades US blockade, transporting oil to Indonesia
June 30 drops to 28%12%
Iran’s supertanker HUGE successfully bypassed the US naval blockade by going dark on AIS and delivering nearly two million barrels of crude oil to Indonesia. This evasion highlights enforcement challenges and reduces market expectations for a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Iran warns of transit difficulties in Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade tensions
May 31 dips to 40%2%
Iranian military warnings about transit difficulties through the Strait of Hormuz indicated escalating tensions and supported market expectations that the blockade would not be lifted by May 31.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
June 30 rises to 83%4%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and signaling the US's commitment to maintaining the blockade, which further reduced market optimism for lifting it by May deadlines.
US Central Command redirects 70 vessels amid Hormuz blockade enforcement
June 30 drops to 47%9%
US CENTCOM reported redirecting 70 vessels since the blockade began, reinforcing the blockade's firm enforcement. This action decreased market expectations for a blockade lift announcement by May 31 and suggested continued military engagement.
UK hosts multinational summit urging Iran to reopen Hormuz
The diplomatic push by over 40 countries highlighted continued international pressure on Iran, but without a US announcement of lifting the blockade, market sentiment remained low for a lift by any of the target dates.
US stocks rise as jobs report overshadows oil price concerns
A strong jobs report lifted broader market sentiment, temporarily offsetting war‑related risks and causing a modest rebound in the Yes probability for later dates.
Trump hints at possible future lift but offers no concrete date
Trump made a vague comment about a potential future lift without specifying a date, which failed to restore market confidence, keeping prices low.
Oil prices rise as market fears of prolonged Hormuz closure grow
Higher oil prices reflected renewed concerns that the blockade would persist, pushing Yes prices down again.
CENTCOM redirects 70 vessels, confirming active Hormuz blockade
June 7 drops to 22%13%
CENTCOM reported redirecting 70 vessels and disabling four, underscoring that the blockade remained fully operational. This reinforced a “No” outlook for any Trump lift announcement before the end of May, driving the June‑7 odds down to the low‑teens.
U.S. Returns Seized Iranian Cargo Ship Touska via Pakistan
June 30 drops to 51%10%
The U.S. returned the seized cargo ship Touska to Iran, suggesting a tactical shift, though U.S. Central Command maintained that the broader naval blockade remains fully in place.
Oil prices dip as markets hope for Hormuz reopening
May 31 plunges to 23%17%
A modest fall in oil prices reflected fleeting optimism that the blockade might ease, briefly lifting Yes odds before the next escalation.
Iran resumes commercial flights from Tehran international airport
Iran resumed commercial flights, a positive development that may have contributed to market price changes.
US Returns Seized Iranian Cargo Ship Touska via Pakistan
June 30 drops to 52%7%
The US transferred the seized Iranian ship Touska to Pakistan as a de-escalation gesture during indirect peace talks, briefly shifting market expectations.
Iranian supertanker evades US blockade, reaches Indonesia
June 7 plunges to 35%20%
An Iranian super‑tanker evaded U.S. forces and delivered crude to Indonesia, highlighting enforcement challenges. The episode lowered confidence that the blockade could be lifted soon, pulling the June 15 and June 7 probabilities down into the 30‑40 % range.
Iranian army spokesman warns of transit difficulties in Hormuz
June 15 drops to 44%12%
An Iranian army spokesman warned of possible transit difficulties for countries backing U.S. sanctions. The threat reinforced expectations of continued blockade, contributing to the market’s decline toward the low‑30 % range on the June‑15 option.
UK leads international talks to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
June 30 dips to 52%3%
Britain convened diplomats from over 40 countries to discuss ways to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting international concern over the blockade's economic impact. The US did not attend, reflecting ongoing US-Iran tensions and uncertainty about blockade resolution.
US stocks rise as jobs report overshadows oil price concerns
May 15 dips to 9%2%
Strong US economic data temporarily eased market fears about the blockade’s impact, nudging Yes prices slightly higher for the earliest dates before they fell again later in the week.
Trump posts on Truth Social that blockade will stay until deal
May 31 drops to 22%6%
Trump’s direct social‑media post reaffirmed the blockade’s permanence, pushing odds back up despite earlier declines.
Trump reiterates blockade will stay in force on Truth Social
May 22 plunges to 12%18%
Trump posted on Truth Social that the blockade would stay until Tehran accepts a U.S. deal, removing any speculation of a near‑term lift and pulling the market sharply down.
Trump says war with Iran ‘terminated’ under ceasefire
The administration’s claim that the war was terminated suggested a possible de‑escalation, briefly lifting market pessimism and causing a modest price rise.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal and reaffirms blockade
Trump publicly stated he was not satisfied with Iran’s peace proposal and that the US blockade would remain in full force, dampening hopes of a quick resolution and pushing prices lower.
Trump reiterates blockade will stay until Iran agrees to deal
In a Truth Social post, Trump again stated the blockade would remain until Tehran meets U.S. demands, reinforcing the market’s view that a lift is unlikely before the end of May.
U.S. Returns Seized Iranian Cargo Ship Touska Amid Ongoing Blockade
June 30 drops to 56%9%
The U.S. returned the seized cargo ship Touska to Iran via Pakistan, signaling a tactical shift but maintaining the overall naval blockade.
Strait of Hormuz remains blocked amid US‑Iran naval skirmishes
June 15 plunges to 9%50%
Renewed U.S.–Iran naval skirmishes were reported, confirming the blockade’s persistence and further depressing market expectations for a lift by mid‑May.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s peace proposal signaled continued US pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, pushing prices lower for all outcome dates.
U.S. Treasury yields ease as oil prices dip modestly
A modest easing of oil prices reduced immediate pressure but did not change the underlying blockade narrative, leading to a small price rebound.
Iranian supertanker evades US blockade, challenging enforcement
May 31 drops to 28%12%
Iran's supertanker successfully bypassed the US naval blockade, demonstrating enforcement challenges and decreasing market confidence in a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
US stocks hit records as jobs report overshadows higher oil prices, but oil remains elevated
A strong jobs report temporarily lifted market optimism, but persistent high oil prices tied to the blockade limited the rally, contributing to a modest price rebound before the next decline.
U.S. Senate debates War Powers Resolution, no change to blockade
May 31 drops to 40%9%
Legislative inaction signaled the blockade would persist, keeping Yes probabilities low for all dates.
US Navy strikes Iranian ship in Gulf of Oman amid Hormuz blockade tensions
June 15 plunges to 26%33%
The US Navy's strike on an Iranian-flagged vessel signals tighter enforcement of the blockade and heightened tensions, reducing the likelihood of President Trump announcing the blockade lift by May 31 and supporting a NO outcome for earlier resolution dates.
Iran supertanker evades US blockade, impacting Strait of Hormuz market outlook
June 30 drops to 28%12%
Iran's supertanker 'HUGE' successfully bypassed the US naval blockade, transporting crude oil undetected. This demonstrated enforcement challenges for the blockade, leading to a market decrease in the likelihood of a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Iran supertanker evades US blockade, impacting Strait of Hormuz market outlook
May 31 drops to 28%12%
An Iranian supertanker successfully evaded the US naval blockade, demonstrating enforcement challenges and reducing market confidence in a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
U.S. Returns Seized Iranian Cargo Ship Touska via Pakistan
June 30 dips to 61%2%
The United States returned the seized Iranian cargo ship Touska, suggesting a tactical shift, though U.S. officials maintained that the broader naval blockade remained fully in place.
Trump orders "shoot and kill" of small boats in Hormuz
Trump announced a more aggressive posture, authorising U.S. forces to engage small Iranian vessels, signaling no imminent de‑escalation and driving the market further down.
Iran bypasses US blockade via Caspian Sea and rail to China
June 30 drops to 52%10%
Iran's strategic use of alternative routes such as the Caspian Sea and rail corridors to China reduces reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, decreasing the likelihood of a US announcement lifting the blockade. Market prices dropped as this indicated sustained tensions and blockade enforcement challenges.
U.S. Navy strikes Iranian vessel in Gulf of Oman amid Hormuz tensions
June 30 jumps to 75%9%
The U.S. Navy struck an Iranian‑flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman, signalling a tougher enforcement stance. The news caused a brief rally in “Yes” odds (the May 9 peak) before the market corrected as participants re‑evaluated the likelihood of a lift announcement.
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian oil tankers enforcing blockade
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers, M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda, attempting to breach the blockade, marking a significant escalation in enforcement and reducing market optimism for lifting the blockade by May deadlines.
US forces disable two Iranian tankers attempting to breach blockade
June 30 rises to 44%4%
On May 8, 2026, US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers trying to breach the American blockade of Iran’s ports, reinforcing the blockade's enforcement and maintaining pressure on Iran to reopen the strait.
US disables two Iranian tankers attempting to breach blockade amid ceasefire talks
May 31 jumps to 40%12%
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers trying to breach the blockade, signaling continued enforcement despite ongoing ceasefire talks. This action maintained pressure on Iran and indicated the blockade would not be lifted imminently, contributing to market declines.
US disables two Iranian tankers attempting to breach blockade
May 22 plunges to 35%25%
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers trying to breach the blockade, reinforcing the ongoing enforcement and signaling no imminent lifting of the blockade.
Trump Claims US-Iran Deal Framework is Largely Negotiated
June 30 jumps to 73%8%
President Trump announced that a framework deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire by 60 days was largely negotiated. This diplomatic progress briefly raised hopes of a resolution, though the final terms remained unsigned.
Trump announces 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and US disables Iranian tankers
May 31 jumps to 31%11%
Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire while US forces disabled Iranian tankers attempting to breach the blockade, showing continued military pressure on Iran.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 31 dips to 41%1%
US forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This action reinforced the US commitment to the blockade and diminished market hopes for an imminent lifting by May 31.
UKMTO says Hormuz threat level remains critical
May 31 plunges to 15%15%
UKMTO reported the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz remained critical due to sustained military activity. The assessment reinforced market sentiment that the blockade would continue, contributing to the decline of the May 31 probability into the low teens.
US disables Iranian tankers attempting to breach blockade amid ceasefire talks
May 22 drops to 25%5%
U.S. Central Command reported disabling two Iranian tankers trying to breach the blockade, reinforcing the ongoing enforcement of the blockade despite ceasefire negotiations, which kept market confidence low for lifting by May 22.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 22 drops to 29%6%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and undermining hopes for an early blockade lift. This action contributed to market declines in the probability of the blockade ending by May dates.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the strait
The seizure marked the first interception since the blockade began, reinforcing the perception that the US would not lift the blockade soon, further depressing prices.
Iran’s foreign minister says the Strait of Hormuz is reopening
June 15 plunges to 30%29%
Araghchi said the Strait was being reopened under Iranian control, hinting at a diplomatic breakthrough. The market reacted by sharply lowering the “Yes” price for the early June dates (June 15 and June 7) to the low‑30 % and 13 % levels respectively, while the July 31 price stayed high.
U.S. Navy disables two Iranian tankers breaching Hormuz blockade
May 22 plunges to 37%24%
U.S. forces disabled two Iranian tankers attempting to breach the blockade; the action reinforced the blockade’s enforcement and drove the market lower as prospects for reopening dimmed.
Iranian super‑tanker evades U.S. blockade, underscoring enforcement challenges
June 30 drops to 66%7%
A massive Iranian super‑tanker evaded a U.S. blockade and delivered oil to Indonesia. The successful evasion highlighted enforcement difficulties and pushed the market down sharply, accounting for the drop from the May 9 high to the May 11 trough.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 14%10%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and signaling the US's commitment to maintaining the blockade, which further reduced market optimism for lifting it by May deadlines.
Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz amid US talks for potential blockade lift
July 31 jumps to 61%5%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing negotiation over military action and suggesting a potential diplomatic resolution. This increased market optimism for a US blockade lift announcement, reflected in a moderate price increase.
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
U.S. forces engaged Iranian tankers, underscoring ongoing hostilities and reducing market confidence that the blockade would be lifted by any of the listed dates.
Trump announces 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire
Trump announced a 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, a separate diplomatic event that did not directly affect the Hormuz blockade market.
Trump says U.S. blockade stays in place as forces disable two Iranian tankers
May 31 drops to 27%14%
During a live‑updates briefing, Trump reiterated that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect while also noting the disabling of two Iranian tankers trying to breach it. The reaffirmation kept “Yes” odds high despite earlier market softening.
Iran fires on India‑flagged ships, summons ambassador
Escalation by Iran increased regional tension and suggested the U.S. would keep its blockade to maintain leverage, keeping market sentiment bearish.
US and Iran Reach Agreement on Easing Blockade for Gradual Reopening
June 30 rises to 75%2%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran reached an agreement in principle to ease the naval blockade in exchange for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, driving the June 30 option to high levels.
Iran fires on ships after U.S. blockade continues
May 31 surges to 49%21%
Renewed Iranian attacks reinforced the perception that the blockade would not be lifted soon, further depressing Yes prices.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
June 30 rises to 51%3%
The seizure reinforced the active enforcement of the blockade, briefly restoring confidence in its continuation and causing a modest price rebound.
US military strikes Iranian military facilities after Iranian attacks on US Navy ships
Following Iranian missile, drone, and small boat attacks on US Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz, the US military conducted retaliatory strikes on Iranian military facilities, escalating military tensions and reinforcing the blockade's enforcement.
Oil prices dip as analysts hope for renewed US‑Iran talks
A modest fall in Brent crude after reports of possible diplomatic engagement briefly lifted optimism that the blockade might be eased, causing a short‑term price rebound.
Trump pauses US operation guiding vessels through Strait of Hormuz amid talks
June 30 plunges to 36%16%
President Trump announced a temporary halt to the US operation guiding vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a delay in lifting the blockade. This pause reduced market confidence in a blockade lift announcement by mid-May and end of May, causing prices to drop significantly.
Trump Pauses Project Freedom Operations to Focus on Finalizing Iran Deal
June 30 surges to 73%17%
President Trump announced a temporary pause in the US military's 'Project Freedom' operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing great progress toward a final agreement with Iran. This diplomatic opening caused a surge in market optimism for a blockade lift by June 30.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait
U.S. Navy action against Iranian tankers underscored the ongoing enforcement of the blockade, further reducing confidence that the blockade would be lifted soon.
Trump hints at possible “Project Freedom” to guide ships out of Hormuz
Trump announced a new initiative to facilitate ship movements, sparking a brief market rally as traders saw a potential path to lifting the blockade.
Trump Announces Temporary Pause in Project Freedom Citing Progress Toward Iran Deal
June 30 jumps to 63%7%
President Trump announced a temporary pause in the US military's 'Project Freedom' operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing great progress toward a final agreement with Iran. This sparked significant optimism that the blockade might be lifted soon, causing a sharp rise in the June 30 contract.
US Central Command reports redirecting 70 vessels amid ongoing Hormuz blockade enforcement
June 30 dips to 58%2%
CENTCOM's report of redirecting 70 vessels and disabling four since the blockade began underscores the continued enforcement of the US naval blockade, signaling no imminent lifting. This reinforced market expectations of a continued blockade, decreasing the likelihood of a US announcement lifting it by May 31.
Trump announces blockade pause and Iran opens Strait of Hormuz amid talks
July 31 jumps to 71%5%
President Trump announced a pause in the blockade to explore a deal with Iran, while Iran’s IRGC declared the Strait open, signaling potential de-escalation. However, Trump conditioned the opening on Iran’s compliance, leaving uncertainty and mixed market reactions.
US forces disable Iranian tanker M/T Hasna attempting to breach blockade
US forces disabled the Iranian-flagged tanker M/T Hasna using a 20mm cannon after it attempted to breach the US naval blockade, escalating military tensions and reinforcing the blockade's enforcement, which lowered market confidence in an imminent lifting.
Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz amid US talks for potential blockade lift
June 30 jumps to 62%6%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing negotiation over military action. This development was interpreted by markets as increasing the likelihood of a US announcement to lift the blockade, causing moderate market optimism.
Trump announces he will lift US blockade of Strait of Hormuz on June 30
Trump announced a specific date for lifting the blockade, causing a sharp price spike to 81% for the June 30 outcome.
US and Iran announce lifting blockades, Strait of Hormuz set to reopen
President Trump announced a pause in the blockade to explore a potential agreement with Iran, and Iran's IRGC declared it would allow ships to pass the Strait of Hormuz. This raised market hopes for a blockade lift, reflected in a price increase for later resolution dates.
Iran's reported plan to create agency to control Strait of Hormuz is 'unacceptable'
Rubio criticized Iran's plan to create a government agency to vet and tax vessels seeking passage through the strait, raising concerns about international law.
Trump pauses US Hormuz blockade to explore deal
June 30 jumps to 57%11%
Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. was pausing the blockade to allow time for a potential agreement. The pause was interpreted as a possible de‑escalation and shifted odds toward a later lift, pushing the “Yes” price for the June 30 outcome up to 57 % by the end of May.
US pauses operation guiding vessels through Strait of Hormuz amid talks
June 30 drops to 50%9%
President Trump announced a temporary halt to the US operation guiding vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling delays in lifting the blockade and reducing market confidence in a near-term announcement. This pause suggested ongoing diplomatic negotiations but no immediate resolution.
UKMTO says threat level in Hormuz remains critical amid military activity
June 30 jumps to 73%14%
UKMTO reported that the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz remained “critical,” citing continued U.S. naval enforcement. The assessment reinforced expectations that the blockade would stay in force, contributing to the market’s slide from the May 5 trough to a May 7 peak.
Trump administration says war in Iran has been 'terminated'
The Trump administration claimed the war in Iran had ended due to the April ceasefire, potentially allowing the blockade to be viewed as a concluded operation rather than ongoing.
Trump administration says war in Iran has been 'terminated'
June 30 rises to 64%3%
The administration claimed the war ended due to the April ceasefire, potentially allowing them to avoid congressional approval, but the blockade continued.
CENTCOM redirects 70 vessels, reinforcing Hormuz blockade
May 31 plunges to 20%25%
CENTCOM released a report that it had redirected 70 commercial vessels and disabled four ships attempting to breach the blockade. The enforcement action signaled a hardening of the U.S. stance, causing the market to push the June 30 probability lower and the May 31 probability sharply down into the teens.
US Central Command reports redirecting 70 vessels amid Hormuz blockade enforcement
June 30 drops to 38%12%
CENTCOM's report of redirecting vessels and disabling some since the blockade began underscores the continued enforcement of the US naval blockade, decreasing the likelihood of a blockade lift announcement by May 31. This action reflects sustained military pressure and strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade
May 31 jumps to 35%5%
The US returned the seized Iranian cargo ship Touska, suggesting a tactical shift but maintaining the blockade. This mixed signal caused a moderate market impact, with no clear indication of an imminent blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Trump pauses US operation guiding vessels through Strait of Hormuz amid talks
June 30 plunges to 36%16%
President Trump announced a temporary halt to 'Project Freedom,' the US operation guiding vessels through the Strait amid blockade tensions, signaling a potential delay in blockade resolution. Market reaction showed decreased likelihood of a blockade lift announcement by end of May.
US Navy strikes Iranian ship in Gulf of Oman amid Hormuz blockade tensions
June 30 drops to 47%9%
The US Navy engaged an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman, signaling continued enforcement of the Strait of Hormuz blockade. This heightened military action decreased market expectations for President Trump announcing a blockade lift by May 31 and reduced the likelihood of normalized traffic by mid-May.
Trump pauses US military operation guiding ships through Strait of Hormuz amid deal progress
May 31 dips to 22%3%
President Trump announced a temporary pause in the US military operation 'Project Freedom' to guide stranded vessels through the Strait, citing progress toward a comprehensive agreement, but confirmed the blockade remains in full effect, maintaining market uncertainty.
Trump pauses US operation guiding vessels through Strait amid talks
May 31 plunges to 21%31%
President Trump announced a temporary pause to the US military operation guiding vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to allow time for a deal with Iran, while maintaining the blockade, causing market prices for lifting the blockade by May to decline.
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the strait
U.S. Navy engaged Iranian tankers, disabling them and underscoring that the US blockade remained active, causing a sharp drop in market confidence for a near‑term lift.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Declares New Equation of Strait of Hormuz Solidifying
June 30 jumps to 65%9%
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf stated that a new equation in the Strait of Hormuz was solidifying, accusing the U.S. of violating the ceasefire and imposing a blockade.
US Intercepts Six Ships Attempting to Run Strait of Hormuz Blockade
June 7 drops to 39%14%
The United States launched 'Project Freedom' to secure shipping lanes but actively enforced its blockade, turning back six ships attempting to exit Iranian ports. This military enforcement signaled that the blockade remained firmly in place, driving down expectations of an early lift.
US and Iran Maintain Standoff Over Dual Blockades in Strait of Hormuz
Despite ongoing diplomatic channels, the dual blockade remains in place as the US refuses to lift its port restrictions and Iran maintains control over the strait, keeping the June 30 resolution probability at 56%.
Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea and rail to China
June 30 plunges to 23%39%
Iran's strategic use of alternative routes such as the Caspian Sea and railroads to China to circumvent the US blockade decreased market expectations for a blockade lift announcement by May 31. This adaptation suggested continued enforcement challenges and prolonged tensions.
U.S. returns seized Iranian vessel Touska amid ongoing Hormuz blockade
June 30 jumps to 65%9%
The United States returned the Iranian cargo ship Touska after seizing it during the Hormuz blockade. The move was seen as a modest de‑escalation but the blockade itself remained in place, nudging market participants to lower the probability of a Trump‑announced lift before the end of May.
US Central Command reports redirecting 70 vessels enforcing Hormuz blockade
June 30 rises to 59%3%
CENTCOM's report of redirecting 70 vessels and disabling four since the blockade began underscores ongoing enforcement of the US naval blockade, signaling no imminent lifting. This reinforced market expectations for a continued blockade, decreasing the likelihood of a Trump announcement lifting it by May 31.
Strait of Hormuz threat level remains critical amid military activity, UKMTO says
June 30 plunges to 33%23%
UKMTO reported a critical threat level in the Strait, reinforcing market expectations of a continued blockade and pushing "Yes" odds down for a May lift.
US launches Operation Project Freedom to escort merchant ships through Strait of Hormuz
June 30 dips to 56%3%
The US Central Command announced a mission to escort merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz to restore freedom of navigation while maintaining the blockade of Iranian ports. This operation reflected ongoing US efforts to assert control and pressure Iran amid stalled negotiations and military tensions.
Trump announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of Hormuz, then pauses it
The brief hope of a lift followed by an abrupt pause signaled uncertainty and reinforced expectations that the blockade would not be lifted soon, further depressing prices.
Iran supertanker HUGE evades US naval blockade, transporting oil to Indonesia
May 31 drops to 28%12%
Iran's supertanker successfully evaded the US naval blockade by going dark on AIS and transported nearly two million barrels of crude oil to Indonesia, demonstrating enforcement difficulties and decreasing market expectations for a blockade lift.
Trump announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of Hormuz, then pauses it
May 31 drops to 28%13%
The brief hope of a guided exit raised Yes odds briefly, but the sudden pause reversed optimism, driving the price down sharply.
Trump announces “Project Freedom” to guide ships out of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 20%14%
Trump unveiled a plan to allow limited ship movements, creating brief optimism that the blockade might be eased, which temporarily lifted Yes prices for the nearer dates.
Iran supertanker evades US blockade, transporting oil to Indonesia
Iran's supertanker HUGE went dark on AIS and transported nearly two million barrels of crude oil to Indonesia, bypassing US Navy assets. This successful evasion reinforced the blockade's enforcement difficulties.
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
Continued US military engagement kept the blockade in effect and underscored the lack of any imminent de‑escalation, driving prices lower.
Trump hints at possible pause in Project Freedom
May 31 plunges to 28%60%
A brief statement suggested the U.S. might pause its “Project Freedom” escort effort, raising speculation that the blockade could be eased, which coincided with a sharp drop in market odds.
President Trump likens US Navy seizure of Iranian ships to piracy
June 30 jumps to 66%10%
President Trump publicly described US naval operations seizing Iranian ships as acting 'like pirates,' highlighting the aggressive enforcement of the blockade and signaling no intention to lift it soon, which influenced market sentiment toward a prolonged blockade.
U.S. Central Command reports no ships passed blockade in first 24 hours
U.S. Central Command confirmed that no vessels had transited the strait since the blockade began, confirming the blockade’s effectiveness and further reducing lift expectations for May 22.
US returns seized Iranian vessel Touska to Pakistan
May 31 jumps to 35%13%
Reports that Iran’s cargo ship Touska was returned to Pakistan hinted at a possible de‑escalation, briefly raising the May 31 probability to the mid‑30 % before the market re‑asserted a low‑probability view.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 41%7%
The escalation demonstrated the blockade’s active enforcement, causing another drop in Yes probabilities for a near‑term lift.
Iran says Strait of Hormuz closed again until US blockade lifted
May 31 plunges to 22%38%
Iranian military announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed again due to the US refusal to lift its blockade, reinforcing the blockade's continuation and reducing market expectations for a near-term lift announcement.
Iran's top diplomat leaves Pakistan, talks stall
Iran's top diplomat left Pakistan and Trump told envoys not to travel for further talks, signaling stalled negotiations and reduced market optimism for a near-term resolution.
U.S. Navy fires on two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
Direct military engagement reinforced the perception that the blockade would stay in place, pushing Yes prices sharply lower.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade blockade
June 30 jumps to 79%8%
The US Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade, reinforcing the US commitment to maintaining the blockade and reducing market confidence in an imminent lifting.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing blockade enforcement
May 31 jumps to 35%5%
The US returned the Iranian cargo ship Touska, signaling a tactical shift but maintaining the blockade, which led to mixed market reactions and a slight increase in lift announcement probability.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 22 plunges to 34%26%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fired on ships attempting to pass, in retaliation to the US blockade. This escalation heightened global energy concerns and diminished prospects for the blockade being lifted soon, negatively affecting market prices.
Trump reaffirms continuation of US naval blockade in Axios interview
May 31 plunges to 44%37%
In an Axios interview, President Trump stated the US naval blockade of Iran would continue until Tehran accepts nuclear demands, rejecting Iran's proposal to open the Strait in exchange for lifting the blockade. This firm stance reduced market expectations for an early blockade lift.
UK hosts virtual meeting of 40+ countries to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 44%16%
Britain convened a virtual meeting of over 40 countries to increase diplomatic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting international concern but no direct US involvement or lifting of blockade.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
The U.S. Navy’s seizure of an Iranian‑flagged vessel heightened tensions and underscored the active enforcement of the blockade, pushing market sentiment toward a lower chance of lift.
Trump keeps naval blockade on Iran, rejects offer to open Strait of Hormuz
Trump confirmed he would continue the blockade until Iran accepts nuclear demands, and the US Navy has been enforcing operations in the Arabian Sea since mid-April. This solidified the blockade's duration.
US naval blockade enforcement intensifies amid rising oil prices and tensions
May 31 plunges to 25%15%
The US Navy's enforcement of the blockade, including strikes on Iranian vessels, coincided with oil prices hitting $100 per barrel, reflecting heightened tensions and reducing market optimism for a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Trump Declares Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports to Pressure Iran
June 30 surges to 67%19%
Trump announced a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a deal, marking the start of the blockade and setting the stage for market expectations.
Trump rejects Iranian proposal to open Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting blockade
May 31 plunges to 40%24%
In an Axios interview, Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade, reinforcing expectations that the blockade would continue and causing market prices for blockade lift to decline.
U.S. stocks hit records despite higher oil prices
While equities rallied, the underlying oil‑price pressure from the blockade kept market participants skeptical about a lift, contributing to a modest price dip.
President Trump rejects Iranian proposal to lift blockade, vows to continue naval blockade
May 31 plunges to 26%21%
In an interview, President Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, affirming the continuation of the U.S. naval blockade until Iran meets nuclear demands. This firm stance further diminished market expectations for a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Trump rejects Iranian proposal to lift blockade in exchange for reopening Strait
In an Axios interview, President Trump stated he would continue the naval blockade until Iran accepts nuclear demands, rejecting Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged blockade.
Trump reaffirms blockade continuation in Axios interview
May 31 plunges to 44%36%
In an Axios interview, President Trump stated he would continue the US naval blockade of Iran until Tehran accepts his administration's nuclear demands, rejecting an Iranian proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade. This reinforced the blockade's continuation and caused a sharp drop in Yes prices for all dates.
Trump rejects Iranian proposal to open Strait of Hormuz
In an Axios interview, Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the strait in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating 'The blockade stays until they make a deal.' This reinforced the expectation that the blockade would continue.
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing blockade
May 31 jumps to 35%5%
The US returned the Iranian cargo ship Touska, signaling a tactical shift but maintained the blockade enforcement. This mixed signal caused a moderate market impact, with prices reflecting decreased likelihood of a blockade lift announcement by May 31.
Trump announces temporary pause to Hormuz blockade – ‘Project Freedom’
June 30 jumps to 74%9%
Trump announced a 3‑day pause to the blockade to allow “Project Freedom” to guide ships through the strait, giving traders hope of a near‑term reopening and moving the market sharply higher.
Trump directs officials to extend US naval blockade of Hormuz
June 30 surges to 65%25%
The White House announced that President Trump had ordered the continuation of a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The statement clarified that the blockade would remain in effect until a formal lift announcement was made, reinforcing market expectations that the blockade would not be lifted soon. Prices for the June 30 outcome rose sharply from the low‑40s to the mid‑60s percent range as traders priced in a lower probability of a lift announcement before the end of May.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan, Trump urges phone talks
The back‑and‑forth signaled stalled negotiations and no clear path to lifting the blockade, keeping market sentiment bearish.
Trump says no envoys will travel to Pakistan for talks
Trump announced he had told envoys not to go to Islamabad, indicating a stall in diplomatic efforts and suggesting the blockade would continue, causing another price drop.
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan; Trump suggests phone talks
May 31 rises to 56%3%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Pakistan amid efforts to restart talks, but President Trump indicated the sides could talk by phone instead of sending envoys, reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and no clear path to lifting the blockade soon.
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan amid stalled talks
May 22 drops to 28%5%
Iran’s foreign minister made a brief return to Pakistan as mediators tried to revive ceasefire negotiations, but President Trump suggested talks could happen by phone instead, indicating ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and no clear progress toward lifting the blockade.
Trump tells envoys not to travel to Pakistan for Iran talks
June 30 jumps to 74%11%
Trump’s reversal on sending senior negotiators to Pakistan signaled a stall in diplomatic progress, reducing optimism that the blockade might be lifted soon and contributing to a price rise.
Trump cancels envoys’ trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 31 drops to 55%10%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further Iran talks, signaling stalled negotiations and continued blockade enforcement, reducing market expectations for a near-term blockade lift.
Trump says he’s no longer sending Witkoff and Kushner to Pakistan for Iran talks
June 30 surges to 81%17%
Trump announced he had told envoys not to travel to Islamabad for further talks, effectively stalling diplomatic progress and keeping the blockade in place. The market’s confidence in a “Yes” outcome rose sharply after the statement.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan, says no travel needed
By halting diplomatic envoys, Trump reduced prospects for a negotiated end to the blockade, causing another decline in Yes prices.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan, halts diplomatic push
June 30 dips to 73%1%
By pulling back diplomatic engagement, Trump reinforced the stance that the blockade would stay in place, further depressing the market’s Yes outlook.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 31 drops to 64%11%
President Trump announced he told US envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further Iran talks, citing wasted time and lack of progress. This move reflected stalled diplomatic efforts to resolve the blockade and war, reducing market optimism for an imminent lifting of the blockade.
Talks between U.S. and Iran stumble as Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan
May 22 plunges to 33%27%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump announced he had told envoys not to travel for further talks, signaling stalled negotiations. This development reduced market optimism about a near-term resolution and lifting of the blockade.
Trump says he told envoys not to go to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 22 plunges to 28%32%
Trump announced he had told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for ceasefire talks, signaling stalled negotiations and continued blockade enforcement.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 31 drops to 54%6%
President Trump announced he told envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner not to travel to Pakistan for planned Iran talks, signaling a breakdown in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict and lift the blockade. This diminished hopes for a near-term resolution and contributed to market declines.
Trump says he told envoys not to go to Pakistan for Iran talks
Trump announced he had told his envoys not to travel to Pakistan for ceasefire talks, signaling a breakdown in negotiations and reinforcing the blockade.
Trump says he told envoys not to go to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 plunges to 28%52%
Trump announced he had told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for Iran talks, signaling stalled negotiations and continued US pressure on Iran.
Trump says he told envoys not to go to Pakistan for Iran talks
Trump canceled the envoy trip to Pakistan after talks failed, signaling a shift in diplomatic approach and contributing to market price fluctuations.
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 22 plunges to 34%26%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further ceasefire talks with Iran, citing lack of progress and ongoing US naval blockade. This signaled stalled diplomacy and maintained blockade enforcement, lowering market expectations for lifting the blockade by May 22.
Trump unveils “Project Freedom” to guide ships through Hormuz
June 30 drops to 59%14%
In a televised address, Trump announced “Project Freedom,” a plan to guide civilian ships through the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. protection. The news briefly lifted market optimism for a quick resolution, prompting a dip in “Yes” prices before the subsequent rise due to later hard‑line statements.
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid blockade tensions
May 31 drops to 63%13%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress and maintaining the blockade. This signaled stalled diplomacy and sustained blockade enforcement, lowering market expectations for a near-term blockade lift.
Strait of Hormuz closed again after US refuses to lift port blockade
May 31 plunges to 60%22%
Iran reimposed its closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US refused to lift its blockade of Iranian ports, with Iranian military stating strict control over the strait. This reinforced market expectations that the blockade would not be lifted soon.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war and maintains blockade
May 31 drops to 65%11%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, expressing dissatisfaction and continuing the blockade, which diminished market optimism for an imminent lifting of the blockade.
Iran warns of transit difficulties in Strait amid US blockade tensions
May 31 plunges to 56%25%
Iranian Army spokesman warned that countries supporting US sanctions might face transit difficulties, indicating heightened tensions and decreasing likelihood of a US blockade lift announcement.
U.S. Central Command: 23 ships turned back in first day of blockade
May 31 drops to 64%13%
A U.S. Central Command briefing reported that 23 Iranian‑flagged ships had been turned back in the first 24 hours of the blockade, confirming the operational intensity of the blockade and causing a temporary market bounce.
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s offer removed a potential diplomatic pathway to lifting the blockade, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Trump cancels envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 dips to 60%4%
President Trump announced he told envoys not to travel to Pakistan for further talks with Iran, signaling stalled negotiations and continued uncertainty over the blockade's future.
U.S. Central Command reports 23 ships turned back by blockade
The operational report showed the blockade actively preventing vessels from transiting, confirming that the U.S. was not moving toward lifting it, which weighed on market sentiment.
U.S. seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
The U.S. Navy seized an Iranian‑flagged vessel attempting to evade the blockade, reinforcing the enforcement of the blockade and further lowering market confidence in a near‑term lift.
Iran bypasses US blockade of Hormuz via Caspian Sea, rail to China
May 31 plunges to 23%39%
Iran circumvented the US blockade by using alternative routes through the Caspian Sea and rail corridors to China, reducing reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. This development lowered market confidence in a blockade lift announcement by May 31 due to sustained geopolitical tension.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
June 30 dips to 74%1%
Trump’s public dismissal signaled continued U.S. pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, keeping Yes probabilities low.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s peace offer signaled continued US pressure and no imminent end to the blockade, keeping market sentiment bearish for a lift.
Trump posts on Truth Social that blockade remains in full force
May 31 surges to 85%17%
Trump posted on Truth Social that the blockade would stay “in full force” and that he would not send envoys to Pakistan, reinforcing the expectation that the blockade would continue and pushing the market further down.
Trump says U.S. blockade will stay in force despite cease‑fire talks
During a press briefing Trump reiterated that the blockade remains active while diplomatic talks continue, reinforcing market belief that a lift is unlikely in the short term.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
Trump’s public rejection signaled no imminent diplomatic breakthrough, reinforcing expectations that the blockade would stay in force and pushing Yes prices down further.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship 'Touska' in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 77%8%
The US Navy intercepted and seized the Iranian cargo ship 'Touska' after it ignored multiple warnings to alter course, marking a significant enforcement action that escalated tensions and reinforced the blockade's seriousness, reducing market optimism for an early lifting.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
Iran’s IRGC announced the strait was closed again and began firing on vessels, linking the closure directly to the U.S. blockade and removing any optimism of a quick lift.
US seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 jumps to 82%7%
The US Navy attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first interception since the blockade began. This event heightened tensions and diminished prospects for lifting the blockade soon.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
June 30 surges to 74%18%
The U.S. Navy seized an Iranian‑flagged cargo vessel near the Strait of Hormuz, the first interception since the blockade began. Iran called the act piracy, heightening tensions and pushing the market toward a “Yes” view that the blockade would persist.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 78%10%
The US Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This military action reinforced the blockade's enforcement and reduced market optimism for an early lifting.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 56%21%
The U.S. Navy attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade, marking the first such interception since the blockade began. This action heightened tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, impacting market perceptions of the blockade's continuation.
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz
The first interception since the blockade began signaled a hardening US stance, prompting a further drop in market confidence that the blockade would end soon.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
June 30 rises to 75%4%
Iran’s retaliation underscored the blockade’s persistence, prompting a sharp rise in Yes prices as traders saw little chance of an early lift.
Trump says he’s ‘not satisfied’ with Iran’s proposal to end the war
June 30 jumps to 73%9%
Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war, saying he was “not satisfied.” The refusal signaled that the blockade would continue, reinforcing market expectations of a “Yes” outcome.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fully closes the Strait and fires on ships
Iran announced a complete closure of the strait and began firing on vessels, tying the reopening directly to the U.S. blockade and pushing market odds of a lift even lower.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Hormuz and fires on ships
Iran’s retaliation by fully closing the strait and firing on vessels highlighted the ongoing conflict and made a lift of the U.S. blockade seem unlikely, further depressing market prices.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
In retaliation to the US blockade, Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and signaling Iran's refusal to yield to the US blockade. This action reduced market confidence in a near-term lifting of the blockade.
Iran fully closes Strait and fires on ships after U.S. blockade
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced a full closure of the strait and fired on vessels, underscoring that the U.S. blockade was still active and making a lift unlikely, pushing prices lower.
Administration argues war‑powers deadline paused, keeping blockade legally viable
May 31 jumps to 44%7%
A senior administration official cited the War Powers Resolution to argue that the 60‑day congressional approval deadline was paused by the ceasefire, implying the blockade could continue without new congressional authorization. The legal argument sparked a brief rally in “Yes” prices.
Iran fires on ships attempting to transit the strait
Following the closure, IRGC gunboats opened fire on commercial vessels, confirming that the strait remained closed and reinforcing market pessimism about a lift of the blockade.
Iran Revolutionary Guard fully closes Strait of Hormuz in retaliation to US blockade
May 31 dips to 77%3%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and would fire on any vessel attempting to pass, directly countering the US blockade and sharply lowering market confidence that the waterway would reopen soon.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 31 drops to 78%8%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy announced the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and signaling Iran's refusal to yield to the US blockade, impacting market confidence in a near-term lifting of the blockade.
Iran recloses Strait of Hormuz after U.S. maintains blockade
May 31 plunges to 47%17%
Iran reversed a brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, citing the ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and accusing the U.S. of piracy. This reclosure underscored the stalemate and ongoing conflict, signaling no imminent end to the blockade and contributing to market declines in blockade lift expectations.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
June 30 jumps to 74%9%
Iran reversed its reopening of the strait and fired on ships attempting to pass, in retaliation for the US blockade. This escalated tensions and confirmed the blockade was in effect.
Iran re-closes Strait of Hormuz citing US blockade continuation
May 31 plunges to 34%49%
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again due to the ongoing US naval blockade, with Iranian forces firing on ships attempting passage, signaling no easing of tensions and reducing market confidence in a blockade lift soon.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships attempting to pass
Iran reversed its reopening of the strait and began firing on ships, escalating the standoff and contributing to the market's price volatility.
Iran reimposes restrictions on Strait of Hormuz, fires on ships amid US blockade
May 31 plunges to 44%42%
Iran reversed an earlier reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, reimposing restrictions and firing on ships in response to the US blockade, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in a near-term blockade lift announcement.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declares the Strait of Hormuz fully closed and fires on ships
In retaliation for the US blockade, Iran’s IRGC announced the strait was closed and engaged vessels attempting passage, further reducing expectations of a quick lift.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
June 30 jumps to 63%7%
Iran responded to the U.S. blockade by fully closing the strait and attacking vessels, reinforcing the perception that the blockade would not be lifted soon, keeping market odds high.
Iran Revolutionary Guard fully closes Strait of Hormuz in retaliation to US blockade
June 30 surges to 71%15%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and would fire on any vessel attempting to pass, directly countering the US blockade and escalating tensions. This action sharply lowered market confidence that the waterway would reopen soon.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in retaliation
May 22 plunges to 25%35%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until the US blockade is lifted and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating the conflict and signaling no immediate end to the blockade. This action further diminished market expectations for a blockade lift by the near-term dates.
Trump affirms US blockade remains despite Iran reopening Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 64%19%
Despite Iran announcing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels during a ceasefire, Trump stated the US naval blockade would continue until negotiations were fully completed, maintaining market uncertainty about blockade lifting.
Iran announces Strait of Hormuz open during Lebanon ceasefire
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open to commercial vessels during a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon, raising cautious optimism but the US blockade remained in effect, causing mixed market reactions.
Trump announces Strait of Hormuz is completely open but blockade remains
June 30 drops to 73%13%
President Trump announced on social media that the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open and ready for business," but clarified that the naval blockade remains in full effect against Iran until the transaction with Iran is complete. This mixed message caused some market uncertainty.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 77%7%
The US Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the US naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and signaling the blockade's enforcement. This action reinforced the US commitment to maintaining the blockade, reducing market confidence in an imminent lifting.
Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz amid US talks for potential blockade lift
May 31 surges to 83%35%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a move towards diplomatic resolution despite ongoing US blockade enforcement. This increased market optimism for a potential US announcement to lift the blockade.
Iranian Foreign Minister announces reopening of Strait of Hormuz amid US talks
June 30 surges to 83%35%
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing diplomatic efforts and negotiations with the US. This increased market optimism about a potential US blockade lift, reflected in a price rise for the June 30 outcome.
Iranian Foreign Minister announces reopening of Strait of Hormuz amid US talks
May 31 surges to 83%35%
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated the Strait of Hormuz was reopened with conditions, signaling a potential diplomatic resolution and increasing market optimism for a US blockade lift announcement.
US Navy strikes Iranian ship in Gulf of Oman amid Hormuz blockade tensions
May 31 surges to 48%23%
The US Navy engaged an Iranian-flagged vessel, signaling continued enforcement of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and heightened tensions. This action decreased market expectations for President Trump announcing a blockade lift by May 31, reflecting a firmer US stance.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz in retaliation
The IRGC announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and warned that any vessel approaching would be considered hostile, directly countering the US blockade and heightening the risk of continued closure.
Trump says blockade will remain in full force
Two days after the initial announcement, Trump reiterated that the blockade would stay "in full force" despite Iran’s tentative reopening of the strait, reinforcing market expectations that the lift was unlikely.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
The seizure was the first interception since the blockade began, underscoring the enforcement of the blockade and raising fears of continued restrictions, which pushed Yes prices lower.
Trump rejects Iran’s proposal, says blockade will stay
Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, emphasizing that the blockade would remain until Tehran meets U.S. demands, further depressing market expectations for a lift by May 31.
Trump claims Strait of Hormuz permanently reopened, announces deal with China
May 31 jumps to 31%9%
President Trump posted on Truth Social that the Strait of Hormuz is "permanently open" and claimed China is pleased with the reopening and has agreed to cease weapon shipments to Iran, though military officials maintained the blockade was still in effect, causing market uncertainty.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s offer, reaffirming the blockade and lowering expectations that the U.S. would lift it soon, further depressing the market.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials amid ceasefire talks
May 31 surges to 88%40%
Pakistani officials met with Iranian representatives to facilitate diplomacy amid the US blockade and ongoing ceasefire talks, indicating progress toward extending the ceasefire but with the US blockade remaining in place.
Iranian officials warn of forceful response to U.S. blockade threat
May 31 plunges to 64%19%
Following the U.S. announcement of the blockade, Iranian military officials issued warnings of a decisive and proportional response, threatening Gulf ports and maritime infrastructure. This heightened tensions and indicated that the blockade would face strong resistance, reducing the likelihood of a quick lifting announcement.
President Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz
Trump declared a full‑scale blockade on Monday, signalling that the US would not allow Iranian vessels to transit the strait until a deal is reached, intensifying market fears of a prolonged closure.
President Trump announces US military blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 surges to 80%32%
President Donald Trump declared a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal to end the war. This announcement marked the start of the blockade and set the stage for the market.
Trump announces U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports near Strait of Hormuz
President Trump declared a blockade of Iranian ports as a result of failed ceasefire talks, setting the stage for the market's existence and initial price at 48% for the May 31 outcome.
Trump announces U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports
President Trump declared a full‑scale naval blockade of Iran’s ports, signalling that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until a deal is reached, boosting market confidence in a continued blockade.
US military begins naval blockade of Iranian ports
The US military implemented the blockade, seizing vessels and restricting Iranian shipping. This reinforced the blockade's continuation and reduced market optimism for early lifting.
US Central Command begins enforcement of Strait of Hormuz blockade
The US military began enforcing the blockade on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, clarifying that neutral transit through the Strait to non-Iranian ports would not be impeded, reinforcing the blockade's operational status and impacting market confidence.
President Trump announces U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
Trump declared a full‑scale blockade of Iran’s ports, signalling that the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed until Tehran agrees to a deal. The announcement spiked market confidence that the blockade would not be lifted, causing a sharp drop in Yes prices for all dates.
Trump declares U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will stay in full force
President Trump announced on April 13 that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, which underpins the Hormuz blockade, would remain until Tehran agrees to a deal, signaling no imminent lift of the Hormuz blockade.
Trump declares U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports and the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 surges to 73%17%
President Donald Trump announced a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, stating the blockade would remain until Tehran agrees to a U.S. deal. The announcement sparked the market’s initial surge toward a “Yes” outcome as traders priced in the possibility of a permanent blockade.
Trump orders full blockade of Strait of Hormuz after peace talks collapse
May 31 surges to 79%31%
Following the collapse of high-stakes negotiations in Islamabad, President Trump ordered a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to economically strangle Iran and pressure China to influence Tehran. This reinforced the blockade's enforcement and increased market certainty about its continuation.
Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump declared a full naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, marking the start of the blockade and driving initial market pricing toward a 'Yes' outcome.
Trump announces US blockade of Iranian ports begins
President Trump declared the US blockade of Iranian ports, threatening to enforce restrictions on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering initial market optimism about a potential June 30 resolution.
President Trump declares US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz
Trump announced a full naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a deal, marking the start of the blockade and driving initial market pricing toward a 'Yes' outcome.
President Trump announces U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
June 30 dips to 53%3%
Trump declared a full‑scale blockade of Iran’s ports to pressure Tehran to end the war, signaling no imminent lift of the Hormuz blockade and pushing Yes probabilities lower for all dates.
US Navy begins enforcement of Strait of Hormuz blockade
May 31 dips to 80%2%
The US Central Command began enforcing the blockade, interdicting vessels attempting to enter or exit Iranian ports, escalating tensions and reinforcing the blockade's seriousness, which maintained high market expectations for a prolonged blockade.
Trump announces US military blockade of Iranian ports near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 84%36%
President Donald Trump declared a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal to end the war. This announcement marked the start of the blockade and heightened tensions, impacting market expectations for the blockade's duration.
Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump declared a full naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, raising expectations the blockade might be lifted later. This initial announcement drove a sharp market surge toward a 'Yes' outcome.
US military begins blockade of all Iranian ports near Strait of Hormuz
The US military officially initiated the naval blockade on April 13, deploying forces to intercept ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and reinforcing the blockade's enforcement.
Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports
President Trump publicly declared a full naval blockade of Iran’s ports, signalling that the US would not allow Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement raised expectations that the blockade would remain in force, pushing the market up.
President Trump announces U.S. blockade of Iranian ports near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 87%39%
President Donald Trump declared a naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a deal to end the ongoing conflict. This announcement marked the start of the blockade and set the stage for heightened tensions and economic impacts globally.
Trump declares U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 surges to 86%38%
President Donald Trump announced that the United States had begun a naval blockade of Iranian ports, signalling that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until a deal was reached. This initial announcement drove the market’s sharp rise in early April as traders priced in a longer‑term blockade.
U.S. Navy begins naval blockade operations in Strait of Hormuz
CENTCOM announced the start of naval blockade operations in the Strait of Hormuz, targeting ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, which reinforced the blockade's enforcement and raised market expectations of its duration.
Trump orders full naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz after peace talks collapse
May 31 rises to 50%2%
Following the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks in Islamabad, President Trump ordered a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and setting the stage for the blockade's enforcement.
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