Skip to main content
icon for Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Geopolitics·Iran Ceasefire

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

icon for Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Geopolitics·Iran Ceasefire

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Jun 30

Jun 30

38% chance
Polymarket

$283,671 Vol.

38% chance
Polymarket

$283,671 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify. A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify. An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent reports of a late-May US-Iran memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire included Iranian commitments to unrestricted Hormuz transit, removal of mines, and an end to tolls or harassment within 30 days, in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade and select sanctions. However, the draft remains unapproved by President Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with Iranian state media and officials disputing that terms are finalized and highlighting ambiguities over definitions of "unrestricted" access. Shipping volumes through the strait stay minimal, with Iran continuing to enforce approvals and controls amid the unresolved blockade. These stalled negotiations and persistent restrictions, just weeks before the June 30 deadline, underpin trader expectations that a formal public agreement will not materialize.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.

A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.

An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$283,671
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify. A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify. An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify. A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify. An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent reports of a late-May US-Iran memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire included Iranian commitments to unrestricted Hormuz transit, removal of mines, and an end to tolls or harassment within 30 days, in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade and select sanctions. However, the draft remains unapproved by President Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, with Iranian state media and officials disputing that terms are finalized and highlighting ambiguities over definitions of "unrestricted" access. Shipping volumes through the strait stay minimal, with Iran continuing to enforce approvals and controls amid the unresolved blockade. These stalled negotiations and persistent restrictions, just weeks before the June 30 deadline, underpin trader expectations that a formal public agreement will not materialize.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.

A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.

An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$283,796
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify. A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify. An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

icon for Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?

Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?

15%
icon for Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

37%
icon for Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

83%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 38% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 38¢, the market collectively assigns a 38% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?" has generated $283.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?" is 38% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 38% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.