Trader consensus prices an overwhelming 90% probability on President Trump's approval rating falling in the 38.5–38.9% range on May 15, mirroring recent polling averages from aggregators like RealClearPolling (40.3% as of May 14) and Nate Silver's tracker (net -18.9), with individual surveys such as Economist/YouGov (37%, May 9–11) and Ipsos/Reuters (36%, May 8–11) clustering nearby. This positioning stems from fresh polls confirming new second-term lows, fueled by majority disapproval of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict—lacking a rally-around-the-flag effect—and economic pressures including inflation, high gas prices, and cost-of-living concerns. No significant rebound has materialized amid his China summit and other diplomatic moves, heightening midterm risks six months out.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated38.5–38.9 90%
39.0–39.4 2.5%
39.5–39.9 <1%
<38.0 <1%
$23,843 Vol.
$23,843 Vol.
May 15, 2026
<38.0
1%
38.0–38.4
38%
38.5–38.9
90%
39.0–39.4
2%
39.5–39.9
1%
40.0+
<1%
38.5–38.9 90%
39.0–39.4 2.5%
39.5–39.9 <1%
<38.0 <1%
$23,843 Vol.
$23,843 Vol.
May 15, 2026
<38.0
$3,439 Vol.
1%
38.0–38.4
$4,452 Vol.
38%
38.5–38.9
$7,063 Vol.
90%
39.0–39.4
$4,346 Vol.
2%
39.5–39.9
$2,651 Vol.
1%
40.0+
$1,892 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus prices an overwhelming 90% probability on President Trump's approval rating falling in the 38.5–38.9% range on May 15, mirroring recent polling averages from aggregators like RealClearPolling (40.3% as of May 14) and Nate Silver's tracker (net -18.9), with individual surveys such as Economist/YouGov (37%, May 9–11) and Ipsos/Reuters (36%, May 8–11) clustering nearby. This positioning stems from fresh polls confirming new second-term lows, fueled by majority disapproval of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict—lacking a rally-around-the-flag effect—and economic pressures including inflation, high gas prices, and cost-of-living concerns. No significant rebound has materialized amid his China summit and other diplomatic moves, heightening midterm risks six months out.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$23,843End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus prices an overwhelming 90% probability on President Trump's approval rating falling in the 38.5–38.9% range on May 15, mirroring recent polling averages from aggregators like RealClearPolling (40.3% as of May 14) and Nate Silver's tracker (net -18.9), with individual surveys such as Economist/YouGov (37%, May 9–11) and Ipsos/Reuters (36%, May 8–11) clustering nearby. This positioning stems from fresh polls confirming new second-term lows, fueled by majority disapproval of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict—lacking a rally-around-the-flag effect—and economic pressures including inflation, high gas prices, and cost-of-living concerns. No significant rebound has materialized amid his China summit and other diplomatic moves, heightening midterm risks six months out.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$23,843End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices an overwhelming 90% probability on President Trump's approval rating falling in the 38.5–38.9% range on May 15, mirroring recent polling averages from aggregators like RealClearPolling (40.3% as of May 14) and Nate Silver's tracker (net -18.9), with individual surveys such as Economist/YouGov (37%, May 9–11) and Ipsos/Reuters (36%, May 8–11) clustering nearby. This positioning stems from fresh polls confirming new second-term lows, fueled by majority disapproval of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict—lacking a rally-around-the-flag effect—and economic pressures including inflation, high gas prices, and cost-of-living concerns. No significant rebound has materialized amid his China summit and other diplomatic moves, heightening midterm risks six months out.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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