**Turkey's ruling AKP-led alliance and President Erdoğan continue preparatory work on a new constitution to replace the 1982 charter, including recent AKP internal drafting of proposals to adjust presidential powers and enhance parliamentary oversight.** However, advancing any referendum or amendment requires at least 360 parliamentary votes to trigger a public vote or 400 for direct enactment in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly. The governing bloc holds roughly 321-328 seats and lacks cross-party consensus, as weakened opposition parties (including the splintered CHP) have resisted participation amid concerns over term limits and institutional changes. Recent signals reinforce the timeline challenge: in late August 2026, presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum stated that completing a new charter in the current legislative period appears difficult and is more likely in the subsequent parliament. While the June 2026 PKK-related "peace process" legislation passed with broad support (468 votes) and some officials previously projected possible 2026-2027 progress, this has not produced the necessary coalition or formal referendum announcement. With only months remaining in 2026 and structural barriers intact, traders see little prospect of official movement toward a referendum by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
8% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Turkey's ruling AKP-led alliance and President Erdoğan continue preparatory work on a new constitution to replace the 1982 charter, including recent AKP internal drafting of proposals to adjust presidential powers and enhance parliamentary oversight.** However, advancing any referendum or amendment requires at least 360 parliamentary votes to trigger a public vote or 400 for direct enactment in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly. The governing bloc holds roughly 321-328 seats and lacks cross-party consensus, as weakened opposition parties (including the splintered CHP) have resisted participation amid concerns over term limits and institutional changes.
Recent signals reinforce the timeline challenge: in late August 2026, presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum stated that completing a new charter in the current legislative period appears difficult and is more likely in the subsequent parliament. While the June 2026 PKK-related "peace process" legislation passed with broad support (468 votes) and some officials previously projected possible 2026-2027 progress, this has not produced the necessary coalition or formal referendum announcement. With only months remaining in 2026 and structural barriers intact, traders see little prospect of official movement toward a referendum by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$7,452End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Turkey's ruling AKP-led alliance and President Erdoğan continue preparatory work on a new constitution to replace the 1982 charter, including recent AKP internal drafting of proposals to adjust presidential powers and enhance parliamentary oversight.** However, advancing any referendum or amendment requires at least 360 parliamentary votes to trigger a public vote or 400 for direct enactment in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly. The governing bloc holds roughly 321-328 seats and lacks cross-party consensus, as weakened opposition parties (including the splintered CHP) have resisted participation amid concerns over term limits and institutional changes.
Recent signals reinforce the timeline challenge: in late August 2026, presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum stated that completing a new charter in the current legislative period appears difficult and is more likely in the subsequent parliament. While the June 2026 PKK-related "peace process" legislation passed with broad support (468 votes) and some officials previously projected possible 2026-2027 progress, this has not produced the necessary coalition or formal referendum announcement. With only months remaining in 2026 and structural barriers intact, traders see little prospect of official movement toward a referendum by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,452End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Turkey's ruling AKP-led alliance and President Erdoğan continue preparatory work on a new constitution to replace the 1982 charter, including recent AKP internal drafting of proposals to adjust presidential powers and enhance parliamentary oversight.** However, advancing any referendum or amendment requires at least 360 parliamentary votes to trigger a public vote or 400 for direct enactment in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly. The governing bloc holds roughly 321-328 seats and lacks cross-party consensus, as weakened opposition parties (including the splintered CHP) have resisted participation amid concerns over term limits and institutional changes. Recent signals reinforce the timeline challenge: in late August 2026, presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum stated that completing a new charter in the current legislative period appears difficult and is more likely in the subsequent parliament. While the June 2026 PKK-related "peace process" legislation passed with broad support (468 votes) and some officials previously projected possible 2026-2027 progress, this has not produced the necessary coalition or formal referendum announcement. With only months remaining in 2026 and structural barriers intact, traders see little prospect of official movement toward a referendum by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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