Strong El Niño conditions have driven the market's near-certain consensus that no Atlantic hurricane formed in August 2026. Persistent high wind shear, dry mid-level air, and suppressed convection across the main development region prevented the four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—from intensifying beyond tropical storm strength, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center analyses through August 31. This marks one of the quietest starts in decades, with accumulated cyclone energy running roughly 90% below the 1991-2020 average. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically arrive by mid-August, but similar El Niño years have delayed formation into September. A rapid weakening of the El Niño or an unusually favorable September wave could still allow an early hurricane, though current NOAA forecasts indicate continued suppression through mid-month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026 100.0%
August 13 to August 16, 2026 <1%
August 17 to August 21, 2026 <1%
August 22 to August 26, 2026 <1%
$17,690 Vol.
$17,690 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 13 to August 16, 2026
No
August 17 to August 21, 2026
No
August 22 to August 26, 2026
No
August 27 to August 31, 2026
No
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026
Yes
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026 100.0%
August 13 to August 16, 2026 <1%
August 17 to August 21, 2026 <1%
August 22 to August 26, 2026 <1%
$17,690 Vol.
$17,690 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 13 to August 16, 2026
$427 Vol.
No
August 17 to August 21, 2026
$383 Vol.
No
August 22 to August 26, 2026
$1,414 Vol.
No
August 27 to August 31, 2026
$3,398 Vol.
No
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026
$12,067 Vol.
Yes
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions have driven the market's near-certain consensus that no Atlantic hurricane formed in August 2026. Persistent high wind shear, dry mid-level air, and suppressed convection across the main development region prevented the four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—from intensifying beyond tropical storm strength, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center analyses through August 31. This marks one of the quietest starts in decades, with accumulated cyclone energy running roughly 90% below the 1991-2020 average. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically arrive by mid-August, but similar El Niño years have delayed formation into September. A rapid weakening of the El Niño or an unusually favorable September wave could still allow an early hurricane, though current NOAA forecasts indicate continued suppression through mid-month.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Volume
$17,690End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions have driven the market's near-certain consensus that no Atlantic hurricane formed in August 2026. Persistent high wind shear, dry mid-level air, and suppressed convection across the main development region prevented the four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—from intensifying beyond tropical storm strength, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center analyses through August 31. This marks one of the quietest starts in decades, with accumulated cyclone energy running roughly 90% below the 1991-2020 average. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically arrive by mid-August, but similar El Niño years have delayed formation into September. A rapid weakening of the El Niño or an unusually favorable September wave could still allow an early hurricane, though current NOAA forecasts indicate continued suppression through mid-month.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volume
$17,690End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Strong El Niño conditions have driven the market's near-certain consensus that no Atlantic hurricane formed in August 2026. Persistent high wind shear, dry mid-level air, and suppressed convection across the main development region prevented the four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—from intensifying beyond tropical storm strength, as confirmed by National Hurricane Center analyses through August 31. This marks one of the quietest starts in decades, with accumulated cyclone energy running roughly 90% below the 1991-2020 average. Historical analogs show first hurricanes typically arrive by mid-August, but similar El Niño years have delayed formation into September. A rapid weakening of the El Niño or an unusually favorable September wave could still allow an early hurricane, though current NOAA forecasts indicate continued suppression through mid-month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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